NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93bd8a2b2f29478ab917c84e5d1f7390f4ac7a7aa2b8d67e0e593e7f4a4b6dea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 50c | 1,485$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.59 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc0…af1abacked Over | 51c | 1,181$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -7.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 25c | 471.4$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.52 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d63…2e49backed Over | 40c | 434$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.76 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +217.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Over | 73c | 390$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.71 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 36c | 288.09$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.18 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 25c | 222$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.81 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Over | 70c | 155.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.41 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…b53abacked Under | 35c | 134.78$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.3 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Over | 19c | 123.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked Over | 14c | 122$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 130 | 36.2%47 W · 83 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 43c | 120.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 329 | 57.4%189 W · 140 L | +18.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 49c | 109.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 45c | 71.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12cb…4fe3backed Under | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 42.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 620 | 49%304 W · 316 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 50c | 31.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e8…82d1backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Under | 41c | 30.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 156 | 62.8%98 W · 58 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b4…2ce6backed Over | 38c | 29.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ba9…c25fbacked Over | 51c | 29.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Over | 49c | 20.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 142 | 64.8%92 W · 50 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…162dbacked Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6795…4a4cbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59da…1880backed Under | 59c | 17.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5this page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.