NBA · resolved market
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfebe18d457c0b6378c112f0052373bee40db8d595eaaf6fef1fc7afe2c2cd4d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Timberwolvesof Nuggets, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,692
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,692 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves | 52c | 737$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.24 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Timberwolves | 52c | 305.71$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.76 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Nuggets | 47c | 300$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcf4…0939backed Nuggets | 70c | 269.54$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Nuggets | 50c | 265.99$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.58 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +21.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Timberwolves | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Nuggets | 65c | 210$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.5 | 167 | 43.7%73 W · 94 L | -16.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Nuggets | 48c | 209$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.27 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Nuggets | 55c | 205.27$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe619…6342backed Timberwolves | 45c | 201.24$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.24 | 228 | 44.7%102 W · 126 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Nuggets | 63c | 171.35$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.95 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Nuggets | 61c | 164.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…a8e5backed Timberwolves | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 117 | 32.5%38 W · 79 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Timberwolves | 37c | 108.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.11 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…d5b0backed Timberwolves | 46c | 107.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.11 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4395…8fd0backed Timberwolves | 43c | 104.65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Timberwolves | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…057fbacked Nuggets | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd00d…cd39backed Nuggets | 62c | 74.19$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Nuggets | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 45.3%140 W · 169 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nuggets | 54c | 48.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 43.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…3815backed Timberwolves | 43c | 41.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +36%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07ed…041bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 38.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefc…377ebacked Nuggets | 65c | 38.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Timberwolves | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc5b…90afbacked Nuggets | 64c | 26.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 55 | 61.8%34 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nuggets | 51c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Timberwolves | 51c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Nuggets (-3.5)Timberwolves won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Nikola Jokić: Assists O/U 9.5Yes won
- Nikola Jokić: Points O/U 29.5No won
- Nuggets vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5Under won
- Rudy Gobert: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Nuggets (-5.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-6.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Nuggets (-7.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.