Tweets · resolved market
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46b928e10891a07ac6359b753504917c15536f64d4159a14d8601520c41ef8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,915
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,915 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 36c | 619.02$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.74 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2865…2005backed Yes | 75c | 521.25$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a7b8backed No | 37c | 315.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.11 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked No | 43c | 204.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.61 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 45c | 180$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…c11cbacked Yes | 51c | 165.23$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 68c | 106.74$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.28 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6db…a8f6backed Yes | 70c | 102$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70c2…412cbacked No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…a3fdbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed No | 66c | 90.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 41c | 89.89$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 38c | 89.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.4 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 40c | 86.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 75c | 83.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes | 79c | 75$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf2…fcecbacked Yes | 65c | 61.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6c…e3f5backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e50…98f0backed Yes | 68c | 49.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 330 | 27.9%92 W · 238 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 28c | 46.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 28c | 37.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…2adcbacked Yes | 58c | 34.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24d6…6e3cbacked Yes | 79c | 30.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedcb…54b1backed No | 42c | 29.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce10…3e2bbacked Yes | 68c | 27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…a9d2backed Yes | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.4wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 22.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…c35abacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.