Tweets · resolved market
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa39206086c71b83c765c1e7edb4aadcc01ff12ff40543e17fac6a35c1562f89b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,782
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,782 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7374…38ffbacked Yes | 75c | 364.16$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817f…bf28backed Yes | 61c | 354$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.07 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 37c | 321.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 121$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.17 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 45c | 106.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…6be6backed Yes | 65c | 92.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dae…0590backed Yes | 48c | 73.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 27c | 70$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 66.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.67 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 388 | 48.5%188 W · 200 L | +16.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 74c | 47.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 45c | 41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked No | 38c | 40.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…94f5backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…92d6backed Yes | 39c | 35.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e07…0439backed Yes | 76c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 61c | 25.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 89 | 58.4%52 W · 37 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?this page
- Will CZ post 0-19 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
- Will CZ post 40-59 posts from July 14 to July 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.