TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,349,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,568,485

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,349,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,631 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Pistons54c470,000$253,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253,799.8454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic45c350,209$157,594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192,614.972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b71…4e79backed Pistons55c257,285$141,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,506.716944.9%31 W · 38 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Magic49c252,506$124,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127,662.5269848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa945…110fbacked Pistons0c196,791$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.0260%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic57c192,962$109,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,985.166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Pistons55c192,746$105,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,687.344,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons55c168,660$92,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,762.936549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Magic55c155,036$84,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70,311.5385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons16c143,722$22,817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,816.631,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Magic46c122,002$56,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,880.9411137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad2b…f091backed Pistons38c121,827$46,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,244.842937.9%11 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Pistons40c119,345$48,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,230.332347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe5b7…5ee3backed Magic44c99,246$43,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,577.6311333.6%38 W · 75 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Magic43c87,865$37,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50,083.0987144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic65c83,502$54,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,244.171,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d90…1310backed Magic73c77,027$56,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,769.5315274.3%113 W · 39 L+22.2wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+24.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked Magic62c69,977$43,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,721.9512639.7%50 W · 76 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Magic46c62,927$28,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,980.825036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Pistons37c59,598$22,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,051.34546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Magic46c58,056$26,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,350.2417251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic57c56,796$32,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,287.071,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Pistons48c42,350$20,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,240.098035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Magic73c38,526$28,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,424.213770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic45c36,219$16,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,790.544,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Magic46c35,801$16,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,332.652045%9 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Pistons12c34,829$4,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,017.941417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons28c32,907$9,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,226.113,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Pistons35c30,934$10,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,721.3242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbba9…f183backed Pistons47c25,477$12,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,100.962227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+40.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Magic48c24,589$11,683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,905.8464948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Magic45c24,582$11,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,469.6129650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Magic69c23,536$16,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,343.2719033.7%64 W · 126 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Magic69c20,707$14,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,412.098,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Magic45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,999.9914842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked Magic80c19,556$15,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.247869.2%54 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Magic62c19,103$11,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,181.851,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Magic62c18,734$11,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,074.766459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Pistons54c18,423$9,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,937.7116959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Pistons14c18,177$2,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,586.4419246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Pistons4c17,878$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.03614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3d4…884ebacked Pistons22c17,798$3,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,991.818225.6%21 W · 61 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Pistons55c16,904$9,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,236.195848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Pistons43c16,162$6,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,944.5876850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Magic63c15,000$9,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,549.9149244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Pistons49c14,788$7,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,230.212941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Pistons51c14,554$7,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,470.0942645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa01f…8f40backed Pistons0c13,202$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.61837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-34.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Pistons56c13,000$7,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,28037539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Magic63c12,555$7,910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,645.3511864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Pistons54c11,946$6,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,470.311447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Pistons47c11,936$5,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,604.788728.7%25 W · 62 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-23.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Pistons50c10,618$5,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,361.42142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Pistons8c10,595$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.1515140.4%61 W · 90 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons41c10,431$4,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,273.452,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19d8…1691backed Magic44c9,838$4,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,462.4672241.4%299 W · 423 L+2.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Magic44c9,664$4,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,411.8448343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked Pistons38c9,642$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,679.774445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked Magic79c9,367$7,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,984.4429547.5%140 W · 155 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Pistons44c9,039$3,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,958.6220352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Pistons57c8,957$5,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,065.55940.7%24 W · 35 L-12.5wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-41.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pistons24c8,869$2,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,129.461,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Magic47c8,663$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.078532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3280…ea74backed Pistons57c8,546$4,871 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8719531.6%30 W · 65 L-11.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Pistons56c8,040$4,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,502.348750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaad5…ac2ebacked Pistons40c7,962$3,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,191.526532.3%21 W · 44 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a3…8275backed Pistons45c7,935$3,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,560.181643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Magic68c7,930$5,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.529851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Pistons55c7,873$4,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,329.8910352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5eb…a8eebacked Pistons48c7,829$3,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,747.07633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Pistons55c7,392$4,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,093.1234852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Pistons53c7,334$3,887 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,887.222458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pistons34c6,847$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.322,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Pistons24c6,767$1,594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,593.7544345.1%200 W · 243 L+2.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x42e2…d154backed Pistons34c6,479$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,213.12742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+19.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Magic64c6,374$4,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.516357.1%36 W · 27 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Pistons39c6,107$2,409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,409.187243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19d0…e11cbacked Pistons41c6,104$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.434949%24 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic73c5,937$4,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.0159646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Pistons27c5,917$1,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,611.9195651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a88…41ccbacked Magic73c5,903$4,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.764734%16 W · 31 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Pistons31c5,895$1,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,805.317834.6%27 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Pistons47c5,804$2,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,728.0514953%79 W · 70 L+10.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+9.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Magic79c5,677$4,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.3737755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Pistons48c5,637$2,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,727.1112251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a84…ffbbbacked Pistons55c5,552$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.819330.1%28 W · 65 L-9.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-24.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x96dd…17febacked Pistons35c5,521$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.398661.6%53 W · 33 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Pistons32c5,330$1,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,730.5235650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Pistons40c5,289$2,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,115.7689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons10c5,288$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.781,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Magic63c5,231$3,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,934.931968.4%13 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.21per pick47cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa95…6ac7backed Pistons55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d71…8da4backed Pistons42c4,970$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,108.633151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbedd…7605backed Pistons12c4,964$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.8410630.2%32 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Pistons47c4,905$2,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,305.784626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaa14…c21cbacked Pistons48c4,726$2,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,268.34425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-67.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Magic60c4,650$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.071,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Magic67c4,630$3,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,537.2412058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Magic60c4,609$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.8517962%111 W · 68 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Pistons56c4,500$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,52065939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.