TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,443

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,910 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Magic55c5,502$3,040 inWon+$2,461.6169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Pistons45c5,228$2,342 inLost-$2,342.2832846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Pistons51c2,458$1,247 inLost-$1,247.3393148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic78c1,232$964 inWon+$268.023,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Magic47c917.15$428 inWon+$489.3755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Magic71c681.48$485 inWon+$196.4583039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Pistons55c477.65$263 inLost-$262.719355.9%52 W · 41 L-5.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2673…7965backed Pistons9c326.65$29 inLost-$29.236325.4%16 W · 47 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick35cpaid+36.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Pistons52c276.34$143 inLost-$142.8734255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic52c215.43$111 inWon+$104.3489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc63b…6e4ebacked Magic52c202.83$105 inWon+$98.3331238.5%120 W · 192 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Magic54c200$108 inWon+$922,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Pistons36c152.58$55 inLost-$54.9358740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Magic64c149.28$96 inWon+$53.7415846.8%74 W · 84 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Magic59c134.96$80 inWon+$55.3620055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Magic58c112$65 inWon+$47.3578639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce5f…ab17backed Magic48c102.17$49 inWon+$53.2917748%85 W · 92 L+16.4wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+18.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf440…d142backed Pistons27c85.27$23 inLost-$22.95933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Magic48c85$41 inWon+$43.8180440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Magic40c80.01$32 inWon+$48.0126639.8%106 W · 160 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e39…ed5fbacked Pistons49c75.61$37 inLost-$37.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Magic49c60$29 inWon+$30.623441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d30…5f85backed Pistons56c58.43$33 inLost-$33.0216653.6%89 W · 77 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3080…f041backed Magic78c43.15$33 inWon+$9.69837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.19per pick57cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Magic40c40$16 inWon+$2445544.8%204 W · 251 L+21.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+8.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed Pistons49c39$19 inLost-$19.1140440.1%162 W · 242 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c76…2632backed Pistons51c36.17$18 inLost-$18.376876.5%52 W · 16 L+12.8wins+0.19per pick58cpaid+29.7%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x00d4…4c46backed Magic48c32$15 inWon+$16.6421242%89 W · 123 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2b04…f467backed Magic51c31.97$16 inWon+$15.671963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+17.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7baa…03b7backed Pistons53c30.84$16 inLost-$16.3533159.2%196 W · 135 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Magic54c25.26$14 inWon+$11.687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Pistons47c22.66$11 inLost-$10.6527463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.