TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,462
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,495

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,462 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8a21…ba51backed Yes56c676.57$382 inWon+$294.821250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No44c651.43$284 inLost-$284.3890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No47c199.96$94 inLost-$93.9856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No45c149.97$67 inLost-$66.9812642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No45c142.57$64 inLost-$64.161,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes55c141.53$78 inWon+$63.6910636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Yes53c110.07$58 inWon+$51.736847.1%32 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No46c100$46 inLost-$4641050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed Yes54c83.02$45 inWon+$37.9742348.5%205 W · 218 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40a4…c6a9backed Yes54c70.63$38 inWon+$32.3510246.1%47 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No47c49.99$23 inLost-$23.4943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x883a…f5a0backed Yes53c36.88$19 inWon+$17.442638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-19.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x191b…824abacked Yes54c36.01$19 inWon+$16.575253.8%28 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes53c33$17 inWon+$15.5110844.4%48 W · 60 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61c6…d3d9backed Yes53c27.5$15 inWon+$12.933745.9%17 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00ea…4013backed No45c22.4$10 inLost-$10.085046%23 W · 27 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No47c22.38$11 inLost-$10.5219352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72a9…44d3backed Yes53c22$12 inWon+$10.3428455.3%157 W · 127 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes53c20.17$11 inWon+$9.4827539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.