TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,763
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,703

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,763 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54a2…1d43backed Magic27c790.24$209 inWon+$580.8118835.1%66 W · 122 L+24.5wins+0.13per pick22cpaid+116.5%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Magic55c707.64$389 inWon+$318.4495452.3%499 W · 455 L-17.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Pistons73c649.85$474 inLost-$474.3995651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Pistons47c384.64$181 inLost-$181.1569848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pistons45c292.42$132 inLost-$131.5955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eed…cf44backed Pistons47c252.84$119 inLost-$118.842142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d22…e2bbbacked Magic51c190.31$97 inWon+$93.252147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick34cpaid+38.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70ef…e25dbacked Pistons47c156.23$73 inLost-$73.437841%32 W · 46 L-8.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-22.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe11c…24efbacked Pistons76c129.68$99 inLost-$98.565655.4%31 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked Pistons48c100.92$48 inLost-$48.4445445.4%206 W · 248 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60c7…3310backed Pistons44c36$16 inLost-$16.01366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-12.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Pistons52c35.62$18 inLost-$18.383,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…e5acbacked Magic53c30.12$16 inWon+$14.2420055.5%111 W · 89 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons45c27.27$12 inLost-$12.271,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58e4…a515backed Magic55c26.54$15 inWon+$11.947153.5%38 W · 33 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Magic76c20.53$16 inWon+$4.9349247.2%232 W · 260 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.