NBA · resolved market
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x401ea8ef8caa27425b4199a91e11dd3f4719e8a84b1e4668e4a9667ff38db08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Pistons, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $65,722
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Pistons | 44c | 24,002$10,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,559.84 | 545 | 39.6%216 W · 329 L | -28.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Magic | 54c | 15,618$8,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,184.64 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Pistons | 46c | 9,938$4,571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,571.35 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Magic | 55c | 8,177$4,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,679.71 | 726 | 48.3%351 W · 375 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Magic | 56c | 4,592$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,024.83 | 649 | 48.2%313 W · 336 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa38a…821dbacked Magic | 56c | 3,187$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,417.87 | 931 | 48.4%451 W · 480 L | +34.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Pistons | 45c | 3,000$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.99 | 877 | 50.2%440 W · 437 L | -19.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea48…c596backed Pistons | 45c | 2,583$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,162.29 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Pistons | 44c | 2,534$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,103.59 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Magic | 54c | 2,083$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.01 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bb…591fbacked Magic | 56c | 1,982$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.19 | 304 | 46.7%142 W · 162 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Magic | 56c | 1,460$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.58 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Magic | 56c | 1,411$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.73 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Magic | 56c | 1,198$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.91 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Pistons | 46c | 1,008$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.64 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bec…07a8backed Magic | 56c | 973.6$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.38 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…3c2dbacked Pistons | 41c | 969.36$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.6 | 186 | 43.5%81 W · 105 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Magic | 60c | 825.59$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.88 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…44c1backed Magic | 56c | 778.88$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.71 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Magic | 55c | 600.02$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.81 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc5b…5443backed Pistons | 45c | 429.78$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 125 | 42.4%53 W · 72 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Pistons | 46c | 421.1$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.51 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Magic | 54c | 382.13$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 620 | 51.1%317 W · 303 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pistons | 37c | 373.72$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…b057backed Magic | 56c | 347.71$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 211 | 64.5%136 W · 75 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Magic | 80c | 325.66$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.13 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Magic | 79c | 298.27$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.3 | 117 | 43.6%51 W · 66 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons | 44c | 285.52$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Magic | 57c | 257.26$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.15 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Pistons | 46c | 241.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c88…5463backed Pistons | 46c | 231.38$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Pistons | 46c | 176.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.28 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d36…f4cbbacked Magic | 56c | 170.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.15 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Magic | 55c | 169.7$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Pistons | 44c | 130.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c83…3a66backed Pistons | 45c | 113.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.25 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Pistons | 45c | 111.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +6.4wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Pistons | 45c | 107.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 285 | 36.8%105 W · 180 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd454…b47fbacked Magic | 55c | 97.3$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.79 | 272 | 51.1%139 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Pistons | 46c | 81.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.89 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbb…8a37backed Pistons | 47c | 73.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…d31abacked Pistons | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Magic | 55c | 68.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90aa…5f6cbacked Pistons | 46c | 67.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9966…f991backed Pistons | 44c | 67.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a0…e45ebacked Pistons | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Pistons | 44c | 59.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Pistons | 43c | 56.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Pistons | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 141 | 44.7%63 W · 78 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbc…f42bbacked Magic | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 138 | 48.6%67 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Magic | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 424 | 34.4%146 W · 278 L | -19.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7239…4389backed Pistons | 44c | 49.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 437 | 50.1%219 W · 218 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Pistons | 42c | 49.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…20fdbacked Magic | 79c | 43.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2458…bd24backed Pistons | 45c | 42.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Magic | 57c | 42.73$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…e5acbacked Pistons | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 200 | 55.5%111 W · 89 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…e91cbacked Pistons | 45c | 36.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…458fbacked Pistons | 46c | 35.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed Magic | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Magic | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 116 | 48.3%56 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Pistons | 45c | 33.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 160 | 20%32 W · 128 L | -27.0wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…029ebacked Pistons | 44c | 32.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Magic | 56c | 26.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Magic | 61c | 24.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Magic | 57c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pistons (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-1.5)Magic won
- Cade Cunningham: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Franz Wagner: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Franz Wagner: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Paolo Banchero: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. MagicMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H O/U 109.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 209.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 216.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 218.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 219.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 222.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-3.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-4.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-6.5)Magic won
- Spread: Pistons (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.