TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Magicof Magic, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,734
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,734 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf559…f462backed Pistons56c1,739$974 inLost-$973.611654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic57c1,554$886 inWon+$668.32,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Magic48c1,073$510 inWon+$562.5955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Magic52c605.09$317 inWon+$287.7669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Pistons47c580.91$273 inLost-$272.834626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Pistons45c536.69$242 inLost-$241.5124949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fc…41dfbacked Pistons45c258.67$116 inLost-$116.032161.9%13 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+20.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4cd…a898backed Pistons43c252.04$108 inLost-$107.742360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Magic60c175.43$105 inWon+$70.1789048.8%434 W · 456 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Magic53c129.76$69 inWon+$60.8489850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f64…ba01backed Pistons46c117.19$54 inLost-$53.9542740.3%172 W · 255 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6617…29bdbacked Pistons29c100$29 inLost-$2912637.3%47 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Pistons29c79.37$23 inLost-$23.0223441.5%97 W · 137 L+13.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+6.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed Magic71c62.91$45 inWon+$18.2559255.4%328 W · 264 L+23.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed Magic71c50.33$36 inWon+$14.68457.1%48 W · 36 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Magic53c42.04$22 inWon+$19.8387049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Magic50c38.07$19 inWon+$19.0437665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4d76…90a0backed Magic71c37.74$27 inWon+$10.942365.2%15 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.17per pick48cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x34ac…0508backed Pistons57c34.18$19 inLost-$19.48683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+47.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0c2…b14dbacked Magic71c25.16$18 inWon+$7.325958.3%151 W · 108 L+16.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc92…6564backed Magic80c17.46$14 inWon+$3.49966.7%6 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.