TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xb895…e4af

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
61
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NBA, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT4445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 44 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,019Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+94.2%+$960.29
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$2,300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$2,700
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$720Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+100%+$720
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$9,434Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+101.1%+$9,533.83
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$5,090Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+107.3%+$5,460.5
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,640Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,560
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$976Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$975.78
Spread: Knicks (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,193Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$4,814.08
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,900Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+227.7%+$4,327.64
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,948Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,947.73
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$924Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$923.99
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 212.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,250
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,250
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,387Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,386.56
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5)backed Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,750
1H Spread: Pistons (-5.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$930Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$1,070
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+100%+$10.84
1H Spread: Celtics (-4.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$48.35
Spread: Rockets (-4.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$5,094Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+99.5%+$5,069.82
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,359Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$3,690.26
Spread: Celtics (-8.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$1,020Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,019.79
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$2,892Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,892.26
Spread: Pistons (-2.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$698Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$697.54
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$3,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,679.77
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+338.6%+$1,929.99
Showing 25 of 44 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1225%3 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$2.98
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$271.51
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$3,758Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,757.63
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,560
Spread: Brazil (-1.5)backed Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$1,440Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$1,560
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$4,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,007.26
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,840Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$2,160
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$770Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$770
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,645Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,644.99
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)backed Morocco · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$1,860Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,860
Spread: Canada (-1.5)backed Qatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$880Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$880
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedevbacked Daniel Altmaier · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$640Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+525%+$3,359.84
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Apr 26, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)backed Rafa Garcia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,325Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$2,518.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-04-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$141.9
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$962Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$962
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved May 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$645Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$645
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.