UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7874db2af5c15a660c007c356f810454c7e7835cec8582462b4fa961d2a333f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rafa Garciaof Alexander Hernandez, Rafa Garcia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,179,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,321,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,179,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 446 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Alexander Hernandez | 53c | 679,591$360,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360,195.3 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2f…2ca8backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 199,567$92,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106,773.3 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…b218backed Rafa Garcia | 58c | 173,991$100,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73,196.3 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 80,460$37,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,935.95 | 100 | 35%35 W · 65 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 61,404$28,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,093.95 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…eb9abacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 61,040$29,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,503.3 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 44,189$21,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,978.02 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 38,298$17,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,458.28 | 145 | 58.6%85 W · 60 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 36,460$17,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,348.7 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d2…ac37backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 31,484$14,797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,686.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 30,000$15,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,299.93 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 25,355$11,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,641.54 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c1c…2f71backed Alexander Hernandez | 53c | 22,918$12,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,146.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…b33bbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 22,779$10,883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,896.22 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Rafa Garcia | 49c | 21,184$10,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,804.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Rafa Garcia | 50c | 19,806$9,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,973.38 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 18,000$8,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,180 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…6f94backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 13,500$7,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,044.91 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Rafa Garcia | 79c | 13,214$10,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,770.85 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12af…ff78backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 11,959$5,860 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,098.87 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -8.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1c…7980backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 11,739$5,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,280.85 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 11,276$5,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,863.38 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Alexander Hernandez | 45c | 10,783$4,823 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,823.17 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Rafa Garcia | 77c | 10,181$7,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300.82 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7f…a878backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 9,712$5,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.24 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…20d1backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 9,510$4,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,945.02 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 8,118$3,876 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,242.05 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 7,996$4,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,067.37 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 7,444$3,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.52 | 288 | 49.7%143 W · 145 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Rafa Garcia | 50c | 6,820$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,439.99 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Alexander Hernandez | 50c | 6,819$3,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,409.27 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Alexander Hernandez | 14c | 6,105$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.74 | 159 | 39.6%63 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a8…06d9backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 5,580$2,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,013.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed Rafa Garcia | 76c | 4,918$3,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,203.86 | 539 | 56.6%305 W · 234 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb895…e4afbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 4,844$2,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,518.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 4,803$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,545.39 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…1760backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 4,657$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,514.66 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a8…f004backed Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 4,446$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.52 | 209 | 54.1%113 W · 96 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed2…4671backed Alexander Hernandez | 53c | 4,254$2,255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,254.58 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…e11cbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 4,037$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,099.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cee…b72abacked Rafa Garcia | 46c | 3,720$1,711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 3,720$1,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Alexander Hernandez | 53c | 3,667$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.6 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | +8.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Alexander Hernandez | 6c | 3,333$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.98 | 36 | 8.3%3 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76cc…fbbcbacked Alexander Hernandez | 53c | 3,023$1,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,602.29 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 2,951$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0767…36b0backed Rafa Garcia | 45c | 2,944$1,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,622.71 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 2,581$1,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.37 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Alexander Hernandez | 38c | 2,564$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.7 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…50eabacked Rafa Garcia | 46c | 2,461$1,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.98 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 2,446$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,247.62 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c14…d8fbbacked Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 2,385$1,236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,235.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c17…3844backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 2,352$1,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.27 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb652…2db4backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 2,138$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.32 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.16 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Alexander Hernandez | 50c | 2,012$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.23 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x00ff…f7adbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 2,000$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.99 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 1,999$957 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.11 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d9…5896backed Alexander Hernandez | 16c | 1,939$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.92 | 142 | 37.3%53 W · 89 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ad…1b86backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 1,860$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.4 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Alexander Hernandez | 46c | 1,790$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.32 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alexander Hernandez | 20c | 1,745$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.96 | 358 | 48.3%173 W · 185 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 1,635$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.38 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rafa Garcia | 47c | 1,587$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.87 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Alexander Hernandez | 57c | 1,543$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.11 | 87 | 54%47 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b96…1604backed Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 1,514$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Alexander Hernandez | 12c | 1,367$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.22 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Alexander Hernandez | 55c | 1,312$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$716.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…9559backed Rafa Garcia | 45c | 1,270$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.39 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 1,267$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.97 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Rafa Garcia | 50c | 1,253$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$626.62 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7008…d2f5backed Alexander Hernandez | 2c | 1,115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0c4bbacked Alexander Hernandez | 54c | 1,078$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.19 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…2259backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Alexander Hernandez | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 999.99$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.99 | 325 | 45.2%147 W · 178 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…d2e5backed Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 999.94$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.97 | 226 | 61.9%140 W · 86 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 990.15$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$514.88 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 969.67$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.53 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 969.4$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.78 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…a0a9backed Rafa Garcia | 46c | 930$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4d…ca1abacked Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 903.94$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88f4…874abacked Alexander Hernandez | 54c | 900.37$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda00…5c4dbacked Alexander Hernandez | 54c | 899.2$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.57 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ea…b955backed Alexander Hernandez | 2c | 894.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e5…9d7cbacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 805.32$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Rafa Garcia | 47c | 748.63$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.46 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Rafa Garcia | 49c | 732.08$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.36 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…3497backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 723.33$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.17 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…d4d3backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 722.56$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.73 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Rafa Garcia | 48c | 722.3$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.6 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Alexander Hernandez | 51c | 700.77$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Rafa Garcia | 50c | 635.7$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.85 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Rafa Garcia | 48c | 607.58$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.97 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Alexander Hernandez | 7c | 606.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.49 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 594.17$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.98 | 113 | 32.7%37 W · 76 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Rafa Garcia | 62c | 581.77$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.4 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe757…c161backed Rafa Garcia | 47c | 561.75$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.22 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…1031backed Alexander Hernandez | 52c | 560.31$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.5wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?Yes won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Alexander Hernandez win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.