TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-5.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,826,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,054,109

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,826,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 523 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Cavaliers51c394,986$201,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,442.758148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2643…39aebacked Knicks51c290,277$147,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142,441.62347.8%11 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick57cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks49c256,434$124,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,025.2172648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Knicks49c204,270$100,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104,177.4910448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Cavaliers51c155,455$79,282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,282.2217251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers52c139,817$72,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,648.5187451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers49c90,531$44,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,501.5669848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Knicks75c71,659$53,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,199.3426753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks50c64,041$32,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,715.3364948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks77c51,522$39,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,765.478,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Cavaliers49c47,984$23,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,272.4914842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Knicks49c46,868$22,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,902.741,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a35…2fadbacked Knicks50c43,500$21,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,8653138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Knicks49c30,612$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,612.249945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf689…9d83backed Knicks50c30,000$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,0001747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked Knicks50c18,968$9,434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,533.834445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Cavaliers51c18,888$9,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,632.8815952.2%83 W · 76 L+9.2wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Cavaliers50c15,637$7,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,822.551,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks48c14,209$6,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,388.918651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers49c13,811$6,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,774.852,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1509…ca95backed Cavaliers50c13,760$6,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,8803951.3%20 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers49c13,608$6,668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,668.324,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers50c12,475$6,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,211.971,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Knicks49c12,245$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,244.99725.8%25 W · 72 L-9.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-34.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Cavaliers49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9002,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers52c9,615$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x901f…74e9backed Knicks49c8,503$4,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,336.5310046%46 W · 54 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cd1…285dbacked Knicks50c7,398$3,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,699.175347.2%25 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Knicks56c7,381$4,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,273.912,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1103…bb2fbacked Knicks50c6,465$3,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.182050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b2a…7890backed Cavaliers50c6,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked Knicks53c6,000$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,82020155.7%112 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Knicks46c5,892$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,183.8313037.7%49 W · 81 L-14.4wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-24.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x895d…11d5backed Cavaliers65c5,765$3,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,7453557.1%20 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Knicks49c5,550$2,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.9644740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Knicks49c5,102$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.0247856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6111…4742backed Knicks54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3001471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+31.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Knicks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5002941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe504…600ebacked Knicks50c4,823$2,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,414.046043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers46c4,803$2,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.531,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6157…9fb4backed Knicks52c4,712$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,261.547963.3%50 W · 29 L+7.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d03…9e27backed Knicks49c4,485$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.218532.9%28 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dfb…0b3dbacked Cavaliers47c4,255$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cavaliers22c4,097$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.862,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1a9…4090backed Knicks49c4,082$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,081.631540%6 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+17.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Knicks49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,04028056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa538…12c3backed Knicks49c4,000$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0402975.9%22 W · 7 L+7.1wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+47.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Cavaliers49c4,000$1,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,941.3143438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed Knicks49c3,778$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,944.349558.9%56 W · 39 L+13.3wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdc09…3079backed Knicks49c3,576$1,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.546839.7%27 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers49c3,292$1,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,610.8955251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x098e…6fa2backed Cavaliers19c3,231$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.787041.4%29 W · 41 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Knicks54c3,056$1,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,405.5617147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Cavaliers50c3,000$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,509.9965045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Knicks53c3,000$1,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.9989853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b75…433bbacked Cavaliers51c2,941$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xed31…d9c8backed Cavaliers32c2,790$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.092142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Cavaliers50c2,781$1,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,390.592236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Knicks54c2,778$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.7840451.5%208 W · 196 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc71…2c40backed Knicks33c2,720$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.644738.3%18 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+85%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…24eebacked Cavaliers50c2,500$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2508451.2%43 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Knicks49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Knicks53c2,500$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,17569149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Cavaliers49c2,301$1,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.4532045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Knicks54c2,282$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.725358.5%31 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Cavaliers51c2,243$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.0556646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Cavaliers50c2,171$1,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,080.7157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe062…f949backed Knicks48c2,044$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.051662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+40.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers52c2,038$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06062948.6%306 W · 323 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00025352.6%133 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00016050%80 W · 80 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Knicks50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007143.7%31 W · 40 L-8.0wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe9cc…0b39backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003953.8%21 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c49…03d0backed Cavaliers47c2,000$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$939.981060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Cavaliers28c1,843$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.8742842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96a3…d944backed Cavaliers36c1,808$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.757950.6%40 W · 39 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+9.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Cavaliers50c1,775$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$887.537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Knicks53c1,600$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75261747.8%295 W · 322 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Knicks55c1,555$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.291,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Knicks60c1,542$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.3652861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d5c…4f26backed Knicks49c1,531$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.6120945.5%95 W · 114 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Knicks51c1,525$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.0811864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Cavaliers48c1,500$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.9986641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Knicks49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.9878445.8%359 W · 425 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Cavaliers48c1,500$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.2165939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cavaliers15c1,489$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.6145445.2%205 W · 249 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers49c1,455$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710.371,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Cavaliers1c1,428$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.289618.8%18 W · 78 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7677…37c0backed Cavaliers50c1,412$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.8214148.2%68 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Cavaliers56c1,403$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$785.7148845.3%221 W · 267 L+18.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Knicks51c1,366$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.0411558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+88.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed1…eedbbacked Cavaliers47c1,360$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.091060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers19c1,300$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.181,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Knicks73c1,255$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.5230551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Cavaliers40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50052951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Cavaliers50c1,224$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.2513161.8%81 W · 50 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+16.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Cavaliers40c1,165$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.3283039.4%327 W · 503 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b39…3234backed Knicks47c1,158$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$607.897349.3%36 W · 37 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Knicks51c1,088$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.2421957.1%125 W · 94 L+6.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed Knicks53c1,084$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.4419741.6%82 W · 115 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.