TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 103.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,525

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,845 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xad7c…6244backed Over53c4,700$2,491 inLost-$2,4913444.1%15 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under47c3,671$1,726 inWon+$1,945.781,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Under47c1,000$470 inWon+$5301,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b5…2d74backed Over55c726.53$400 inLost-$4006543.1%28 W · 37 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x08f0…2000backed Over54c600$324 inLost-$3241258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27d3…0764backed Under46c600$276 inWon+$324850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+32.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7c0…f389backed Under46c300$138 inWon+$1624531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2df…ca29backed Under45c288.86$130 inWon+$158.5617247.7%82 W · 90 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Under47c215.71$101 inWon+$114.7122844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Over57c202$115 inLost-$115.1416251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over53c185.82$98 inLost-$98.484,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under42c172.41$72 inWon+$10029243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under43c170.53$73 inWon+$97.21,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ea…c45dbacked Over11c100$11 inLost-$112025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…270abacked Under42c63.95$27 inWon+$37.092035%7 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Under43c31.4$13 inWon+$17.955444.4%246 W · 308 L-11.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over54c21.78$12 inLost-$11.7622756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc774…2777backed Over50c20.2$10 inLost-$109153.8%49 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.