TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Evan Mobley: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,046
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,024

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,046 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2374…a426backed Yes49c303.92$150 inLost-$15014443.8%63 W · 81 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes51c197.53$100 inLost-$10012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed No51c196.07$100 inWon+$96.073354.5%18 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c134.43$66 inWon+$68.5985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c130$62 inWon+$67.843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No49c129.41$63 inWon+$666147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4490…fe8bbacked Yes54c111.13$60 inLost-$603450%17 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No46c101.02$46 inWon+$54.5533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked Yes50c63.6$32 inLost-$31.85143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-21%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x13db…2523backed No50c40$20 inWon+$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe012…59e9backed Yes54c36.2$20 inLost-$19.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8a4…b075backed Yes54c34.43$19 inLost-$18.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No51c30.15$15 inWon+$14.7833356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked No54c20.92$11 inWon+$9.6822756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfcf…fe99backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$101040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.