TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$929,299
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,028,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $929,299 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 456 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Knicks48c150,746$71,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,787.4272648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Cavaliers52c139,578$72,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72,580.3815545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed Cavaliers51c135,215$68,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,959.6932653.1%173 W · 153 L+19.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Knicks48c82,609$39,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,108.725248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb85…152fbacked Knicks49c70,000$34,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,699.999945.5%45 W · 54 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Cavaliers55c61,385$33,762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,762.0114538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Cavaliers52c60,000$31,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,046.473844.7%17 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Cavaliers55c35,948$19,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,771.1587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks46c29,175$13,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,782.3985742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks58c28,016$16,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,828.378,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcca…436bbacked Knicks46c26,251$12,172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,078.52966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Knicks45c21,007$9,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,543.6618651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Cavaliers52c20,000$10,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,399.9949244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Cavaliers51c20,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.9915952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Cavaliers55c20,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,999.8910248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Cavaliers52c19,878$10,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,336.651,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf11…8399backed Knicks48c19,073$9,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,918.1737539.5%148 W · 227 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Cavaliers54c17,558$9,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,481.0817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Knicks45c16,344$7,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,001.2755251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Cavaliers52c14,300$7,434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,433.832351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Knicks45c14,003$6,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,641.6157950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks48c13,955$6,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,256.9564948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xafe4…f3f7backed Cavaliers54c13,709$7,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,419.7915850.6%80 W · 78 L+10.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+21.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc807…c12bbacked Cavaliers53c11,560$6,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,126.7920545.9%94 W · 111 L-12.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Knicks47c10,638$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,638.311654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Cavaliers54c10,000$5,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,40017247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Knicks50c10,000$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0005036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf4e1…34a5backed Knicks49c9,975$4,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,087.317100%7 W · 0 L+4.1wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+142.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks47c9,503$4,455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,047.976,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc935…4c02backed Cavaliers54c9,403$5,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,077.781030%3 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Cavaliers54c9,121$4,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,925.526753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Cavaliers56c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00063746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x53fb…ba30backed Cavaliers54c8,062$4,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,353.311050%5 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Knicks45c8,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40038434.9%134 W · 250 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed Knicks45c7,922$3,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,357.222653.8%14 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb10b…0b04backed Knicks46c7,777$3,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,199.583116.1%5 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-58.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc0ff…9953backed Knicks47c7,777$3,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,121.811864.4%76 W · 42 L+15.6wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+25.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Knicks46c7,000$3,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,779.9724252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Knicks45c6,775$3,049 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,726.417048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb462…d158backed Cavaliers54c6,627$3,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,578.36580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Knicks46c6,346$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.051,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4517…f700backed Knicks49c6,122$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,122.4517147.4%81 W · 90 L+13.7wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Knicks48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,12079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99aa…6c5abacked Cavaliers53c5,574$2,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,954.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+53.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Cavaliers52c5,497$2,858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,858.4159250.2%297 W · 295 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Knicks47c5,486$2,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.7969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks45c5,142$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.964,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed Knicks48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.971070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+42.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers56c4,467$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50090650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Knicks48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.675954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks47c3,723$1,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.191,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Knicks74c3,686$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961.8930551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x25ed…ffe0backed Knicks46c3,200$1,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728977.8%7 W · 2 L+4.1wins+0.46per pick32cpaid+156.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Knicks48c3,125$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,62515246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Knicks48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56065939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Knicks49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53065045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b4…ca9bbacked Knicks48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56044252.3%231 W · 211 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Knicks48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.998348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ed…1ea1backed Cavaliers54c2,794$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.551145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Knicks45c2,785$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,531.742,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Knicks77c2,720$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.4352461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ba…04e4backed Cavaliers58c2,679$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,560.873531.4%11 W · 24 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x6043…84afbacked Cavaliers52c2,637$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.241540%6 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x896a…688dbacked Knicks46c2,500$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3506336.5%23 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Knicks48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Knicks48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30023742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Knicks49c2,500$1,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27586641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Knicks45c2,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,37556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfeec…a84abacked Knicks75c2,220$1,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.811843.2%51 W · 67 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ff1…efdbbacked Cavaliers54c2,159$1,166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,165.771471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+26.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Knicks48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.3311759.8%70 W · 47 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+24.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf708…3ac9backed Knicks48c2,040$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b39…7fbcbacked Knicks45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1006155.7%34 W · 27 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Cavaliers54c1,944$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.762,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1788…0994backed Knicks49c1,840$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.41225%3 W · 9 L-3.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Knicks44c1,774$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.471,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Knicks48c1,771$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.837448.6%36 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f56…348abacked Cavaliers24c1,753$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.813756.8%21 W · 16 L+5.1wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+14.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed Cavaliers52c1,700$884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8842236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24c1…54b0backed Knicks46c1,600$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8644327.9%12 W · 31 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Knicks48c1,589$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$828.843438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Cavaliers52c1,571$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.7714854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Cavaliers52c1,526$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.671,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Knicks60c1,514$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.071,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Knicks47c1,480$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.981,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers52c1,464$761 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.1653348.4%258 W · 275 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Knicks45c1,450$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.7332045.3%145 W · 175 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb895…e4afbacked Knicks50c1,440$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7204445.5%20 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc71…2c40backed Cavaliers33c1,320$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.694738.3%18 W · 29 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+85%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6170…f3fdbacked Knicks46c1,304$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.354665.2%30 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Cavaliers53c1,269$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.378148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Cavaliers40c1,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50052951.2%271 W · 258 L+13.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Knicks47c1,201$564 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.5310256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Knicks48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0c3…0230backed Knicks50c1,191$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.57545.3%34 W · 41 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Cavaliers54c1,155$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.3362144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Knicks45c1,124$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.1816048.8%78 W · 82 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Knicks46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.961957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.8wins+0.15per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x73ff…0facbacked Knicks46c1,085$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.836357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Knicks45c1,029$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.4358740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.