TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

James Harden: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,555
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,886

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,555 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3da8…80c3backed Yes56c1,063$600 inWon+$463.15954.2%32 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No43c999.96$430 inLost-$429.986147.5%29 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c874.8$400 inLost-$400.231,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed No44c500$220 inLost-$22013751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Yes54c370.37$200 inWon+$170.3711558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+88.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes54c368.04$200 inWon+$168.0412451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes57c330.18$188 inWon+$142.1830055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No42c200.91$85 inLost-$85.3733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No47c200$94 inLost-$9412347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf72…af1abacked Yes57c193.33$110 inWon+$83.332050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No43c178.95$77 inLost-$76.9585449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4642…21d3backed Yes57c175.63$100 inWon+$75.6313555.6%75 W · 60 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fb…c8b8backed No51c159$81 inLost-$80.8980%0 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb5f2…a029backed No48c154.58$74 inLost-$743060%18 W · 12 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+45.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes53c151.67$80 inWon+$71.2871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No44c149.97$66 inLost-$65.8943752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc1e…c603backed Yes54c130.7$70 inWon+$60.71060%6 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b7f…9a6abacked Yes57c106.44$60 inWon+$45.972100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes58c80.85$47 inWon+$33.9684443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes57c78.95$45 inWon+$33.9510636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x9b87…5f1dbacked Yes54c64.81$35 inWon+$29.81837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes53c64.26$34 inWon+$30.215351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No47c60$28 inLost-$28.265762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7817…8812backed Yes51c51.21$26 inWon+$25.091872.2%13 W · 5 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick55cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No45c43.27$19 inLost-$19.4790863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa64f…e598backed No48c41.83$20 inLost-$2011057.3%63 W · 47 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed No49c41.22$20 inLost-$2011645.7%53 W · 63 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe7a1…7c9dbacked Yes49c40$20 inWon+$20.413764.2%88 W · 49 L+15.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+22.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72e0…789dbacked Yes55c36.36$20 inWon+$16.366100%6 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+84%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb31b…d703backed Yes58c34.41$20 inWon+$14.457940.5%32 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No45c31.26$14 inLost-$14.2233356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed No44c28.77$13 inLost-$12.6641050.7%208 W · 202 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes52c28.68$15 inWon+$13.6827539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No45c24.98$11 inLost-$11.2429449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x110d…cd01backed Yes54c24.07$13 inWon+$11.0734556.2%194 W · 151 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes50c23.92$12 inWon+$11.9684342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes57c23.39$13 inWon+$10.0622756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed No49c22.59$11 inLost-$11.0740546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f18…d8f5backed Yes57c20$11 inWon+$8.69271.7%66 W · 26 L+11.0wins+0.12per pick60cpaid+19.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4cf0…2b6dbacked Yes55c19.89$11 inWon+$8.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+147.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.