TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc774…2777

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
302
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: Ligue 1, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Ligue 1 at 59 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 26, 2026, EDT9153.8%49 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 91 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$6.35
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$5.45
Evan Mobley: Rebounds O/U 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+29%+$8.69
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: 1H O/U 103.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$38.43
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+41.9%+$8.37
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$6.82
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$7.97
Tobias Harris: Points O/U 17.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$4.65
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+77.6%+$15.52
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+56.4%+$22.57
Knicks vs. 76ers: 1H Moneylinebacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+44%+$8.79
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 91 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT4751.1%24 W · 23 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$51.43
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: AFC Bournemouth 1 - 2 Manchester City FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$25.56
Antoine Semenyo: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 3 - 0 Burnley FC?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)backed Burnley FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$94.12
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Jeremy Doku: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+276.1%+$138.03
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$30.65
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$31.52
Manchester City FC leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+79.5%+$39.73
Benjamin Sesko: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+205.1%+$102.57
Bruno Fernandes: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Alexander Isak: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Wrexham AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+213.7%+$42.75
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT3636.1%13 W · 23 L-6.7wins-0.18per pick55cpaid-38.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
France vs. Spain: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$120
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$38.36
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Canada win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.06
Will Italy win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$156.26
Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+95.9%+$60.48
Will Netherlands win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Hungary win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Algeria vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Serbia win on 2026-03-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$38.44
Spread: Germany (-1.5)backed Germany · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+68.2%+$122.72
Colombia vs. France: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+72.7%+$20.2
Will Georgia win on 2026-03-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.57
Haiti vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Mexico vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$55.24
Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Japan win on 2026-03-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$19.88
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT2458.3%14 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Champions League — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Luis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$100
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+133.8%+$120.4
Antoine Griezmann: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Julian Alvarez: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Viktor Gyokeres: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Bukayo Saka: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+209.3%+$62.8
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+98.6%+$86.14
Michael Olise: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+206.4%+$198.07
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+146.4%+$42.35
Ousmane Dembele: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$41.91
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$52.95
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+34.5%+$50.59
FC Bayern München vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+37%+$3.97
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$18.42
Sporting CP vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.17
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+146%+$102.04
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+68.3%+$31.41
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.85
All 24 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kylian Mbappe: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$112.77
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 1 Real Oviedo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Real Madrid CF 1 - 0 Real Oviedo?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Robert Lewandowski: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 1 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 3 - 0 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: FC Barcelona 2 - 2 Real Madrid CF?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$46.67
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$48.95
Getafe CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-05-02?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+203%+$40.61
Valencia CF vs. Girona FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.92
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.54
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.33
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Getafe CF: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$23.65
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+69.5%+$13.9
All 23 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1650%8 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FC Schalke 04 win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.32
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 3 - 1 1. FC Köln?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+53.1%+$15.92
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.58
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$5.25
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.38
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.33
VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.58
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.91
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$6.73
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$33.41
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+101.7%+$50.84
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+300%+$30
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 16 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1560%9 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+24.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.67
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$66.76
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+108.1%+$54.05
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$33.33
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+61.5%+$30.77
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$224Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+154.7%+$347.17
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.6
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Lille OSC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+133.4%+$93.4
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. AS Roma end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+213.5%+$64.04
VfB Stuttgart vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
All 15 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT1050%5 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Atalanta BC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.22
Spread: Como 1907 (-1.5)backed Como 1907 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+67.8%+$13.45
Cagliari Calcio vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.84
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$250Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$270.44
Will Como 1907 vs. AS Roma end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Como 1907 vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.76
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$50.81
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Torino FC vs. Parma Calcio 1913: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 10 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick49cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: Anytime Goalscorerbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+150.7%+$30.14
Exact Score: Stade Brestois 29 1 - 0 RC Strasbourg Alsace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Exact Score: Stade Brestois 29 2 - 3 RC Strasbourg Alsace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-04-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$227Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$60.3
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.21
Olympique Lyonnais vs. AS Monaco FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+76.3%+$15.26
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)backed Paris Saint-Germain FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+125.6%+$37.68
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-03-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$62.34
All 9 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+82.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Mls — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-40.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Australian A League Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Australian A League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Australian A League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 14, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bucharest Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Dino Prizmicbacked Dino Prizmic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Miyazaki: Tung-Lin Wu vs Paul Jubbbacked Tung-Lin Wu · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10.79
Miyazaki: Hayato Matsuoka vs Liam Broadybacked Liam Broady · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$9.57
All 3 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$97.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 169.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.