NBA · resolved market
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6e819060bf2cdecbc512db954675fd752b676186dbdd4c330e39575414303d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Yes | 53c | 1,377$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.28 | 170 | 47.6%81 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 49c | 1,364$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.95 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed No | 45c | 1,188$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.92 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…23e1backed Yes | 51c | 654.2$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.79 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772c…a9bbbacked Yes | 56c | 350.5$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 270$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.3 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked No | 47c | 221.56$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…9022backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…a426backed Yes | 51c | 193.61$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.87 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…21d3backed Yes | 54c | 185.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.74 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +11.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ae…320fbacked Yes | 51c | 167.18$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ed…b497backed No | 48c | 109.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 52c | 105.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.51 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Yes | 47c | 99.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 46c | 89.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 48c | 81.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes | 52c | 52.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.03 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fc…1e75backed Yes | 54c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e8…6e04backed No | 51c | 44.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3641…43f9backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +5.2wins | +0.31per pick | 46cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 53c | 37.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 56c | 35.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 48c | 33.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…bfd4backed Yes | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58c…76adbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.