TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,083
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,083 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under47c2,264$1,064 inWon+$1,200.0450346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over53c2,031$1,076 inLost-$1,075.6487750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Over53c649.65$342 inLost-$342.2516251.9%84 W · 78 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under48c418.43$201 inWon+$217.9187049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7c…6244backed Over25c401.99$100 inLost-$100.53444.1%15 W · 19 L+4.3wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x64d4…f056backed Under75c347$260 inWon+$86.7520558.5%120 W · 85 L+19.6wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d727backed Under52c135.87$70 inWon+$65.87250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c109.98$56 inWon+$54.393,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Over56c89.41$50 inLost-$5022844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under44c82.43$36 inWon+$46.1679650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over48c70.87$34 inLost-$34.022,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba9…d704backed Over52c67.27$35 inLost-$34.98742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-14.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e24…b31fbacked Under49c51.02$25 inWon+$26.0214357.3%82 W · 61 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under44c50$22 inWon+$281947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Under47c48.79$23 inWon+$25.791,26445.8%579 W · 685 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Under75c47.63$36 inWon+$11.915251.9%27 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x798e…c7b9backed Over53c37.74$20 inLost-$201631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-45%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Over52c20$10 inLost-$10.41435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-30.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.