NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x77ee2f09a3f15a1e7f475bbcb15f8441bfe648a974dd79ef6665302b5f938c1e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,163
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,163 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb68…a240backed Pistons | 20c | 3,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Cavaliers | 46c | 2,995$1,377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,617.53 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd942…f9d3backed Pistons | 54c | 2,897$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,564.52 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 2,028$965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.81 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed Pistons | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…08b3backed Pistons | 55c | 1,435$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.45 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 1,271$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.05 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Pistons | 27c | 1,127$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.29 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21b5…1db6backed Cavaliers | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 70cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x307d…9163backed Cavaliers | 76c | 1,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.05 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Pistons | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pistons | 24c | 811.53$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.77 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 808.51$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.51 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc30f…d8a7backed Cavaliers | 59c | 796.91$471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Pistons | 40c | 750$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 529 | 51.2%271 W · 258 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Pistons | 26c | 588.38$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers | 51c | 565.64$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.15 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf8…03b2backed Pistons | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 275 | 49.5%136 W · 139 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Pistons | 57c | 525.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.72 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Pistons | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Cavaliers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Cavaliers | 51c | 320.03$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.81 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Pistons | 77c | 313.09$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c451backed Pistons | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f3…73e6backed Pistons | 25c | 299.97$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 216.2$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee9…1362backed Pistons | 54c | 200.55$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.3 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Cavaliers | 21c | 199.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.28 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cavaliers | 47c | 185.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cavaliers | 71c | 184.03$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 308 | 42.9%132 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Pistons | 61c | 164.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers | 45c | 164.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6be…f675backed Pistons | 12c | 164$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70f7…d7debacked Pistons | 16c | 154.48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Cavaliers | 51c | 151.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Pistons | 14c | 111.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Pistons | 44c | 104.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Pistons | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cavaliers | 53c | 103.76$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 469 | 59.1%277 W · 192 L | +28.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2908…789abacked Pistons | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cavaliers | 46c | 95.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb67…4803backed Pistons | 55c | 88.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7afb…ff15backed Pistons | 26c | 79.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 75 | 28%21 W · 54 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Cavaliers | 46c | 78.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.61 | 621 | 44%273 W · 348 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe977…807ebacked Pistons | 56c | 75.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2661…6c28backed Pistons | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Cavaliers | 75c | 68.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 202 | 47.5%96 W · 106 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Cavaliers | 75c | 68.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 218 | 49.5%108 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers | 75c | 68.13$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Pistons | 30c | 67.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Cavaliers | 50c | 53.24$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Pistons | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Cavaliers | 46c | 44.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…595dbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 43.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 405 | 48.4%196 W · 209 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be0…dc27backed Pistons | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 53.8%85 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cavaliers | 78c | 32.36$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Cavaliers | 75c | 32.12$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 557 | 51.9%289 W · 268 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5b…4ef4backed Cavaliers | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0e…8177backed Pistons | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 206 | 50.5%104 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers | 49c | 29.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Cavaliers | 62c | 27.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.39 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cavaliers | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 602 | 50.5%304 W · 298 L | +14.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Cavaliers | 55c | 26.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 219 | 53.4%117 W · 102 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Cavaliers | 55c | 25.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 592 | 55.4%328 W · 264 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…e166backed Pistons | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 187 | 57.2%107 W · 80 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.