TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,778
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,778 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No46c344.75$158 inLost-$158.245,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c2…1e3abacked Yes52c252.7$131 inWon+$121.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-26.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbef…0c11backed Yes56c240.99$136 inWon+$104.994360.5%26 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes46c223.5$104 inWon+$119.6217547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed No48c199.99$96 inLost-$9656043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8dd…5672backed Yes52c193.08$100 inWon+$93.082951.7%15 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes52c191.24$100 inWon+$91.2412451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No52c142.75$74 inLost-$74.3223741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c130$62 inLost-$62.243752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Yes55c103.77$57 inWon+$47.0613759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde74…77abbacked No45c100$44 inLost-$44.512642.9%54 W · 72 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No52c78.5$41 inLost-$40.8285449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No48c67.29$32 inLost-$32.319352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No47c65.32$31 inLost-$30.72,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee8…30abbacked No50c51.67$26 inLost-$25.84683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+73.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes50c48.5$24 inWon+$24.2540053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No44c44.64$20 inLost-$19.641,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes56c44.64$25 inWon+$19.6466046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No50c39.66$20 inLost-$19.6962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Yes51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.225048%24 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No48c31.71$15 inLost-$15.2252150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No46c30$14 inLost-$13.833556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No55c25$14 inLost-$13.8533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No53c23$12 inLost-$12.1429449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.