NBA · resolved market
1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ee99b2d42df977e2e8680cd5a0c2ef989d950be202d5131e333d103a1e6c8be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Pistons | 53c | 2,215$1,175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.75 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 1,660$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x334b…d971backed Pistons | 35c | 849.16$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.95 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +116.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 840.04$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.63 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pistons | 40c | 771.49$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.85 | 1,200 | 51.6%619 W · 581 L | +66.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7987…884abacked Cavaliers | 48c | 399.8$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 258 | 50%129 W · 129 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Pistons | 56c | 353.83$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Pistons | 52c | 339.71$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.06 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Cavaliers | 47c | 317.55$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Cavaliers | 47c | 316.73$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 219 | 50.2%110 W · 109 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Cavaliers | 49c | 302.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Pistons | 60c | 200.72$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.72 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cavaliers | 48c | 191.76$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.16 | 237 | 41.4%98 W · 139 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Cavaliers | 61c | 162.81$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.39 | 428 | 42.5%182 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…7453backed Cavaliers | 47c | 127.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Cavaliers | 47c | 123.4$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Pistons | 52c | 113.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 108.61$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.92 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Pistons | 58c | 102.71$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Pistons | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers | 41c | 97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Pistons | 38c | 93.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 45c | 80.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Cavaliers | 41c | 72.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Pistons | 53c | 50.46$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Pistons | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0621…0417backed Cavaliers | 44c | 47.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Pistons | 59c | 47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Pistons | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Pistons | 51c | 39.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 181 | 50.3%91 W · 90 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons | 53c | 37.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ad…365abacked Pistons | 55c | 35.58$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pistons | 62c | 33.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x713f…2d95backed Pistons | 55c | 30.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Pistons | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 335 | 56.7%190 W · 145 L | +26.4wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers | 34c | 29.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.