TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Cavaliers, Pistons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,352

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,252 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7a3f…6712backed Cavaliers52c1,545$803 inLost-$803.44663%29 W · 17 L+6.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+43.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbc5b…3f6abacked Cavaliers52c1,115$580 inLost-$579.611946.2%55 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd355…e402backed Cavaliers52c1,041$541 inLost-$541.24540%18 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Pistons48c645$310 inWon+$335.42,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons48c500$240 inWon+$2601,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pistons48c500$240 inWon+$26050346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Pistons48c385.77$185 inWon+$200.687049.3%429 W · 441 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Pistons49c117.38$58 inWon+$59.384951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Cavaliers57c88.1$50 inLost-$5022844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Pistons48c74.1$36 inWon+$38.5362049%304 W · 316 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Cavaliers41c73.87$30 inLost-$30.4962047.3%293 W · 327 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Pistons43c66.12$28 inWon+$37.6979650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Cavaliers51c54.39$28 inLost-$27.7423741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c5b…1a23backed Cavaliers52c50.13$26 inLost-$26.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Pistons48c45.13$22 inWon+$23.4717946.4%83 W · 96 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Cavaliers52c42.31$22 inLost-$223735.1%13 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons48c42.31$20 inWon+$221,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.