TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,998
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,213

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,998 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No54c727.79$391 inLost-$390.95,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes44c528.03$230 inWon+$298.0319951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No57c491.65$280 inLost-$280.241,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes48c352.29$169 inWon+$183.1925657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes48c208.65$100 inWon+$108.6512451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes43c200$86 inWon+$1149618.8%18 W · 78 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick16cpaid+13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f2…5a5dbacked Yes46c113.64$52 inWon+$61.2517547.4%83 W · 92 L-13.3wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-14.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No52c100$52 inLost-$5285449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes46c50$23 inWon+$277443.2%32 W · 42 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+8.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No54c50$27 inLost-$275451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No52c41$21 inLost-$21.3290863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed No66c34.88$23 inLost-$22.938354.2%45 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No55c30$16 inLost-$16.3526957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes43c23.84$10 inWon+$13.598852.3%46 W · 42 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No53c22.26$12 inLost-$11.7529449.7%146 W · 148 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa81…aaf7backed No53c20.75$11 inLost-$115541.8%23 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+20.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No52c20$10 inLost-$10.452150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.