NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96526599e89724ac7a08323f7bc8ddc05b22ab513a56f899d7db2af96b476834
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pistonsof Pistons, Cavaliers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,478
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,557
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,478 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf284…b9f9backed Pistons | 43c | 755.22$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.47 | 186 | 51.1%95 W · 91 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers | 56c | 436.83$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.62 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Cavaliers | 57c | 389.18$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.83 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Pistons | 41c | 385.41$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Pistons | 47c | 325.18$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0dc…586cbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 321$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.84 | 288 | 38.2%110 W · 178 L | -17.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 309$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.04 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Pistons | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Cavaliers | 57c | 261.84$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.25 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52f8…ad19backed Pistons | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 133 | 42.9%57 W · 76 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Pistons | 45c | 220.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.04 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a6…d556backed Cavaliers | 52c | 193.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6924…1455backed Cavaliers | 61c | 164.15$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.13 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cavaliers | 55c | 160.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Cavaliers | 41c | 103.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…9805backed Pistons | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 229 | 42.8%98 W · 131 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pistons | 51c | 99.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.21 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Pistons | 51c | 96.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Pistons | 44c | 93.18$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pistons | 65c | 89.46$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Cavaliers | 49c | 86.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 149 | 40.3%60 W · 89 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35f…ac66backed Pistons | 44c | 78.84$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…5616backed Pistons | 44c | 48.57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cavaliers | 56c | 47.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a6…5aaabacked Cavaliers | 52c | 39.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons | 43c | 38.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc02…ce2abacked Pistons | 54c | 37.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Cavaliers | 57c | 35.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Pistons | 50c | 25.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Pistons | 60c | 23.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 168 | 67.3%113 W · 55 L | +13.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5)Pistons won
- Cade Cunningham: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5No won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 0.5No won
- Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 27.5Yes won
- Donovan Mitchell: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Evan Mobley: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- James Harden: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- James Harden: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Jarrett Allen: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Pistons vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 206.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5)Cavaliers won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 1.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.