NBA · resolved market
Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x363c9e7bea4f09edf35d31ac1f8856808188e78968a23f46bf2d88446ae89261
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 49c | 210.09$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.8 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…7b09backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 22.1%69 W · 243 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 53c | 188.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bb…a993backed Yes | 51c | 160$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked No | 50c | 143.88$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.94 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef6…38b5backed No | 45c | 126.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Yes | 49c | 101$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed No | 47c | 97.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 498 | 52.6%262 W · 236 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked No | 43c | 91.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.23 | 854 | 49.4%422 W · 432 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed Yes | 57c | 88.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…9cfabacked Yes | 57c | 88.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…f5a9backed No | 45c | 66.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Yes | 55c | 57.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…2777backed Yes | 56c | 53.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 39.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fc…1e75backed Yes | 53c | 38.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Yes | 51c | 36.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…9446backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 47c | 29.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 269 | 57.2%154 W · 115 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 44c | 27.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed No | 47c | 24.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,393 | 48.3%673 W · 720 L | +19.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…cc84backed Yes | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.