NBA · resolved market
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee381b63e186ad0f07345c2fd9b677e1239f6775392b32d0ba69776a636ecc12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,401
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,689
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,401 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe962…663abacked Yes | 47c | 1,148$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.73 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 51c | 800$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes | 49c | 793$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.43 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed8…4388backed No | 52c | 500$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 14c | 399.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Yes | 45c | 252.43$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.04 | 249 | 49%122 W · 127 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…adb1backed No | 54c | 186.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Yes | 54c | 185.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.58 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +88.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…ba22backed Yes | 54c | 184.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…7db3backed No | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes | 47c | 164.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.27 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fab…00afbacked No | 53c | 159$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.27 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ae…7aa6backed No | 54c | 127.78$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…5c20backed No | 54c | 124.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked No | 54c | 111.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 55c | 109.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes | 45c | 82.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 620 | 47.3%293 W · 327 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b27…c539backed No | 52c | 74.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 54c | 70.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed No | 46c | 67.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 193 | 52.8%102 W · 91 L | +11.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed No | 45c | 66.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes | 47c | 64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 447 | 47%210 W · 237 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked No | 43c | 62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920e…7873backed No | 54c | 55.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…a6f6backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a7…40f7backed No | 55c | 54.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22ed…002bbacked No | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3893…8afbbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +9.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes | 48c | 50.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Yes | 50c | 50.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e4…186ebacked No | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…b31fbacked No | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 57.3%82 W · 61 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Yes | 45c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed No | 43c | 46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…ff96backed No | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a1…7c9dbacked No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 64.2%88 W · 49 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9785…2c5abacked No | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…8720backed No | 54c | 37.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 49c | 36.23$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5a…24f1backed Yes | 51c | 31.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x096d…38dfbacked Yes | 49c | 30.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Yes | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…8fc3backed No | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.