TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,760

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xce2b…08fabacked No55c454.55$250 inLost-$25019951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes45c429.39$193 inWon+$236.1684342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No48c369.62$178 inLost-$178.1990863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e4f…2510backed Yes51c192.31$98 inWon+$94.383852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.319353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f47…f611backed Yes52c110$57 inWon+$53.26344.4%28 W · 35 L-8.3wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-26.9%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x1495…d3f9backed Yes48c104.57$50 inWon+$54.5715048%72 W · 78 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+25.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No49c100$49 inLost-$4985449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed No52c100$52 inLost-$5256043.9%246 W · 314 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf836…f39cbacked No54c87.98$48 inLost-$47.5127059.6%161 W · 109 L+13.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1e6…757abacked Yes49c81.74$40 inWon+$41.748148.1%39 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No51c73.43$37 inLost-$37.411,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes46c54.35$25 inWon+$29.3566046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c0…e44bbacked Yes50c40$20 inWon+$207443.2%32 W · 42 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+8.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No50c40$20 inLost-$2014953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89e9…c4a3backed Yes45c30.16$14 inWon+$16.59650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+140.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No51c22.48$11 inLost-$11.4633049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.