TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,694

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,305 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes40c766.22$306 inLost-$306.491,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No60c424.01$254 inWon+$170.0139864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked No60c423.5$254 inWon+$169.512451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No53c212.77$113 inWon+$10056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost-$1008843.2%38 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes48c106$51 inLost-$50.6440053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Yes49c101.48$50 inLost-$5017047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes40c100$40 inLost-$4012347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No53c75.5$40 inWon+$35.5623741.4%98 W · 139 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-18.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No59c72$43 inWon+$29.2126755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a7…40f7backed No51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.823770.3%26 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0xf2fc…1e75backed Yes46c43.2$20 inLost-$201145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed No55c36.6$20 inWon+$16.611645.7%53 W · 63 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No53c35$18 inWon+$16.5233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2889…5922backed Yes45c30$14 inLost-$13.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+34.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb719…c1e1backed No50c27.38$14 inWon+$13.69450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.