TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,254
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,254 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed No48c299.99$144 inLost-$14456050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x906b…9805backed Yes52c288.46$150 inWon+$138.462842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked No48c269.62$129 inLost-$129.4250346.5%234 W · 269 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes52c192.31$100 inWon+$92.318843.2%38 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed No48c99.99$48 inLost-$47.9912347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Yes52c96.15$50 inWon+$46.1517047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No46c72.19$33 inLost-$33.211,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes52c60$31 inWon+$28.815351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes54c55.69$30 inWon+$25.6934849.7%173 W · 175 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf4b7…bc65backed No52c48.32$25 inLost-$252050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes49c40$20 inWon+$20.440053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes40c39.78$16 inWon+$23.8184342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x920e…7873backed No61c32.87$20 inLost-$2011645.7%53 W · 63 L-11.5wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac6c…d0d4backed Yes54c29.76$16 inWon+$13.767153.5%38 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick59cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd31a…28f5backed Yes52c28.85$15 inWon+$13.854949%24 W · 25 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a7…40f7backed No48c27.02$13 inLost-$12.973770.3%26 W · 11 L+7.0wins+0.19per pick51cpaid+40.8%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No47c22.92$11 inLost-$10.7733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4480…8c0ebacked Yes52c21.15$11 inWon+$10.1510351.5%53 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1732…1c15backed Yes53c19.77$10 inWon+$9.271030%3 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.23per pick53cpaid-45.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.