NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf68f5befd300166fb556e74ba8522e07b21e7d5c2c6c8453463808265ce404a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Thunder, Lakers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,507
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,507 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa87d…e4bfbacked Thunder | 50c | 20,010$10,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,005 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Lakers | 50c | 8,708$4,348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,360.47 | 698 | 48.6%339 W · 359 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Lakers | 50c | 4,236$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Lakers | 50c | 4,236$2,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,118 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Thunder | 57c | 2,415$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.89 | 552 | 51.3%283 W · 269 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Lakers | 42c | 2,169$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,258.21 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Thunder | 40c | 1,995$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.9 | 305 | 51.5%157 W · 148 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…ffbebacked Thunder | 11c | 1,565$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Thunder | 2c | 1,370$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…d3abbacked Lakers | 49c | 999.94$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.97 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Thunder | 48c | 958.23$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.95 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Lakers | 68c | 900$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf83b…44a2backed Thunder | 32c | 900$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Lakers | 48c | 749.19$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.87 | 621 | 44%273 W · 348 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed Lakers | 52c | 696.6$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.37 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Thunder | 25c | 610.06$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 524 | 61.6%323 W · 201 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Lakers | 52c | 480.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.77 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -7.9wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Lakers | 79c | 434.05$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.55 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Lakers | 72c | 414.1$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 145 | 56.6%82 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64de…25a1backed Lakers | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Thunder | 28c | 371.11$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x96a3…d944backed Thunder | 39c | 338.27$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993e…57d7backed Lakers | 50c | 288$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Thunder | 53c | 278.76$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.99 | 452 | 51.1%231 W · 221 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Lakers | 49c | 205.8$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4879…86c0backed Lakers | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed Thunder | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 123 | 47.2%58 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…df71backed Lakers | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Lakers | 48c | 166.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.98 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce2…0ac2backed Thunder | 50c | 148.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.49 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Lakers | 61c | 113.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Thunder | 35c | 110$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6607…5bd9backed Lakers | 65c | 110$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 92 | 46.7%43 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Lakers | 50c | 110$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Lakers | 50c | 102$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…a524backed Lakers | 47c | 101$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Lakers | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 612 | 53.1%325 W · 287 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Lakers | 50c | 99.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.02 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -6.6wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Thunder | 34c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.54 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Thunder | 47c | 93.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Thunder | 20c | 91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 113 | 29.2%33 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3109…ff47backed Thunder | 52c | 90$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa53f…8c53backed Lakers | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Thunder | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Lakers | 52c | 49.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Lakers | 50c | 49.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Thunder | 36c | 44.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 62 | 77.4%48 W · 14 L | +13.1wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b81bbacked Lakers | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 75 | 62.7%47 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…e6d8backed Lakers | 57c | 38.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Thunder | 52c | 35.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Lakers | 55c | 34.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Thunder | 51c | 33.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 108 | 47.2%51 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Lakers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed Thunder | 56c | 32.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Lakers | 67c | 28.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3a…89b1backed Lakers | 45c | 28.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…3d00backed Lakers | 51c | 25.61$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 165 | 55.8%92 W · 73 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Lakers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -7.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 27 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-14.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Lakers won
- Ajay Mitchell: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 17.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 21.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Luguentz Dort: Assists O/U 0.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Lakers won
- Thunder vs. LakersThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 212.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 213.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 214.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Lakers: O/U 215.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.