TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x85ee…79a9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
192
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 54 out of 100; worst Premier League at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT12060%72 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 120 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
World Cup Goals H2H: Yamal vs. Mbappebacked Mbappe · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+29%+$5.79
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+41.3%+$41.34
Spain vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will France win on 2026-07-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
England vs. Argentina: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
Argentina vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$20.71
Will Christian Pulisic score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Brazil vs. Norway: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$51.08
Canada vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Colombia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.48
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$11.22
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.41
Australia vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Australia vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Australia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advancebacked Canada · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$6.67
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 8.5 Total Cornersbacked Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)backed Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Son Heung-min score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)backed Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.67
Will England be the highest-scoring team in Group L during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+27.1%+$5.43
Showing 25 of 120 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT3351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$27.69
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 11.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$52.04
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$102
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+100.2%+$40.09
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+72.9%+$25.53
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$26.6
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$28.82
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.62
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$21.72
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$39.77
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 26.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+100%+$50
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 30, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-42.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)backed Red Bull Bragantino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Independiente Santa Fe vs. Caracas FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$74.35
Botafogo FR vs. Santos FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.79
Will Botafogo FR win on 2026-05-30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$6.43
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will O'Higgins FC win on 2026-05-26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Carabobo FC win on 2026-05-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
CA Mineiro vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 28, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+21.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick60cpaid-60.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Asian League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FK Kauno Žalgiris: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)backed Fenerbahçe SK · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Spread: Sabah FK (-1.5)backed The New Saints FC · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
All 3 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will IFK Goteborg win on 2026-07-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-05-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros WTA: Yulia Putintseva vs Camila Osoriobacked Camila Osorio · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$8.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winnerbacked Xtreme Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$7.39
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CF Montréal vs. Toronto FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.