NBA · resolved market
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b1b301afc3905832d37187877d5533185568c7ec9904a89c6f3283c9e63e1e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb046…857cbacked No | 44c | 649.99$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…920fbacked Yes | 56c | 446.43$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce3b…b628backed No | 51c | 395.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3b…07f7backed No | 52c | 356.01$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a67…52edbacked Yes | 56c | 264.12$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.82 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 49c | 259.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 560 | 50.4%282 W · 278 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9caf…e8bdbacked No | 46c | 247.75$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.72 | 330 | 49.1%162 W · 168 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…b186backed Yes | 46c | 216.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x007b…adc6backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 27.9%41 W · 106 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0e…90a1backed No | 48c | 139.97$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.83 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.7wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +44%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…672ebacked Yes | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 137 | 59.9%82 W · 55 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 55c | 105.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.24 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 128 | 50.8%65 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8dd…5672backed Yes | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Yes | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 153 | 51%78 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…9ce4backed No | 50c | 67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 199 | 52.3%104 W · 95 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Yes | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…f932backed Yes | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0265…0a58backed Yes | 54c | 55.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…79a9backed Yes | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…531fbacked No | 50c | 49.84$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed No | 45c | 47.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c7…965cbacked Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a65…5864backed Yes | 52c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…c14abacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Yes | 47c | 37.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 99 | 41.4%41 W · 58 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed No | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 195 | 55.4%108 W · 87 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Yes | 46c | 33.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 437 | 52.6%230 W · 207 L | +18.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfb…550cbacked No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 43c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 333 | 56.2%187 W · 146 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c679backed Yes | 56c | 24.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes | 61c | 24.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 275 | 39.6%109 W · 166 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…03e5backed Yes | 49c | 22.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa2…5e7cbacked No | 50c | 21.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb3…d841backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c2f…9765backed Yes | 55c | 19.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.