TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,919 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9a6…0009backed Yes38c4,068$1,527 inLost-$1,526.524254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7200…9299backed No63c2,887$1,810 inWon+$1,076.6336954.7%202 W · 167 L+28.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2dd7…28d2backed Yes21c1,731$371 inLost-$370.684443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6090…06e0backed No69c1,469$1,010 inWon+$458.731471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1410…9cadbacked Yes31c1,401$440 inLost-$440.430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd9…bfe8backed No73c907.99$665 inWon+$242.865762.3%409 W · 248 L+27.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05ee…9750backed Yes35c857.96$300 inLost-$30020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc025…cb2bbacked Yes36c743.45$270 inLost-$270520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Yes10c665$65 inLost-$64.6780440.3%324 W · 480 L+27.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc2f2…0ff7backed Yes3c656.74$21 inLost-$21.32147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-90.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x65c9…cf56backed Yes4c535.05$20 inLost-$201866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Yes4c375$15 inLost-$15420%0 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes4c375$15 inLost-$1531951.1%163 W · 156 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e85…788bbacked Yes35c317.57$112 inLost-$111.6115651.9%81 W · 75 L+14.8wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+22.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7efd…caedbacked No63c300$188 inWon+$112.149975.8%75 W · 24 L+16.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Yes10c267.81$27 inLost-$26.9778639.2%308 W · 478 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes34c224$75 inLost-$75.447237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe5cd…4249backed Yes31c220.49$69 inLost-$68.65911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02e0…3741backed Yes8c206.25$17 inLost-$16.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick44cpaid+38.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No69c200$137 inWon+$6360267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed No75c149$112 inWon+$37.259654.2%52 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9b0…aea0backed No65c138.25$90 inWon+$48.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14b…2ec2backed Yes37c124.32$46 inLost-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No66c120$79 inWon+$40.9433556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No65c110$71 inWon+$38.6443752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc21…f297backed Yes28c107.03$30 inLost-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed No63c100$63 inWon+$375147.1%24 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No66c100$66 inWon+$34.296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de6…d900backed No75c100$75 inWon+$251580%12 W · 3 L+5.2wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+106.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Yes31c80.53$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda2c…55a4backed Yes30c79.8$24 inLost-$23.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No70c60.82$43 inWon+$18.2614359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…162dbacked No71c58.96$42 inWon+$172770.4%19 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed No75c50$37 inWon+$12.545527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x761b…e8f7backed No70c28.82$20 inWon+$8.543360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x405b…755cbacked No73c20$15 inWon+$5.54864.6%31 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.