TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,112
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,115

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,112 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x556c…93cebacked No43c332.98$143 inLost-$143.1824949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6808…899bbacked No45c322.09$146 inLost-$1465451.9%28 W · 26 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb0e…90a1backed Yes56c249.97$140 inWon+$110.292272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No44c223.57$98 inLost-$98.372,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes55c199.98$111 inWon+$89.1256050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed Yes53c191.79$102 inWon+$89.793473.5%25 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No28c145.88$41 inLost-$41.3642842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes53c100$53 inWon+$4711852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa10…065abacked Yes54c94.33$51 inWon+$43.593354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a65…5864backed Yes73c61.64$45 inWon+$16.642548%12 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No45c54.55$25 inLost-$24.552157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x804f…13abbacked Yes55c54.55$30 inWon+$24.554942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked Yes57c43.86$25 inWon+$18.8613759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86aa…0d32backed Yes69c43.71$30 inWon+$13.711968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No47c40$19 inLost-$18.696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes54c38.81$21 inWon+$17.7719959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8862…bbf5backed Yes73c35$26 inWon+$9.45366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed No43c34.88$15 inLost-$1552552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No41c34.72$14 inLost-$14.3653842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6795…4a4cbacked Yes57c26.32$15 inWon+$11.323964.1%25 W · 14 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7840…51b5backed Yes58c24.28$14 inWon+$10.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No46c22.17$10 inLost-$10.233049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9b…7272backed Yes69c21.52$15 inWon+$6.673458.8%20 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes53c21.21$11 inWon+$9.9722756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.