TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$805
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$825

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $805 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed No42c247.08$104 inLost-$103.772,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Yes58c173.34$100 inWon+$73.348447.6%40 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Yes56c152.22$86 inWon+$66.2712850.8%65 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked Yes54c116.64$63 inWon+$53.6533049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked No46c108.7$50 inLost-$5018748.1%90 W · 97 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86aa…0d32backed Yes58c86.21$50 inWon+$36.211968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No44c71$31 inLost-$31.2436153.5%193 W · 168 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No43c60$26 inLost-$25.843752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked No43c39.26$17 inLost-$16.8871449.3%352 W · 362 L+2.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x804f…13abbacked Yes57c35.09$20 inWon+$15.094942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e68…b271backed Yes57c34.18$19 inWon+$14.71353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No43c26.13$11 inLost-$11.2433356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes58c23.95$14 inWon+$10.0622756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.