TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$775
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$774

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $775 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No59c398.83$237 inWon+$162.0133049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9f9…2b7bbacked Yes41c242.32$99 inLost-$99.352347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de9…9499backed Yes40c121.1$48 inLost-$48.4410636.8%39 W · 67 L-14.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0xac65…cfe6backed No62c100.01$62 inWon+$38.013473.5%25 W · 9 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes40c69.99$28 inLost-$2815351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No61c43.46$26 inWon+$1785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes37c40.84$15 inLost-$15.114037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae5…8386backed Yes39c38.46$15 inLost-$152161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.5wins+0.17per pick45cpaid+33.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No59c34.14$20 inWon+$1419959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No60c33.33$20 inWon+$13.3366046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed Yes41c31.71$13 inLost-$132653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes40c25$10 inLost-$1012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a03…4066backed No61c24.59$15 inWon+$9.591070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+36%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed No53c21.28$11 inWon+$1019555.4%108 W · 87 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.