TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,178

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,190 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33dd…ef8abacked No53c4,000$2,120 inWon+$1,88013954.7%76 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Yes47c2,100$987 inLost-$98795651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x880b…c98bbacked Yes47c1,802$844 inLost-$843.82937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.5wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-28%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No48c522.66$251 inWon+$271.782157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefd1…c520backed No52c502.2$261 inWon+$241.358654.7%47 W · 39 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…df36backed Yes51c447$228 inLost-$228.4440053.5%214 W · 186 L+14.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes51c239.96$122 inLost-$122.3856050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7c…8eabbacked Yes47c212.77$100 inLost-$1008843.2%38 W · 50 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No55c185.31$101 inWon+$84.278652.4%412 W · 374 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked No49c142.86$70 inWon+$72.8613759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Yes49c118.06$58 inLost-$57.9119959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes49c99.94$49 inLost-$48.9711852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9736…43c7backed Yes55c54.55$30 inLost-$303754.1%20 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No49c53.06$26 inWon+$27.0614953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No48c50.92$24 inWon+$26.4733049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0172…3858backed Yes46c43.48$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fc…c14abacked No55c41.82$23 inWon+$18.822552%13 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x497c…a9bbbacked Yes52c41.73$22 inLost-$21.7616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.30per pick47cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No48c41.73$20 inWon+$21.785449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed No49c40.82$20 inWon+$20.8266046.8%309 W · 351 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e53…922dbacked No51c39.22$20 inWon+$19.224254.8%23 W · 19 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost-$2012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbfb…550cbacked No51c29.41$15 inWon+$14.414553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No47c28.73$14 inWon+$15.1433356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c26…1694backed No57c21.07$12 inWon+$9.072653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes52c20.9$11 inLost-$10.8722756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.