TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,257

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,850 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x556c…93cebacked No45c609.99$274 inLost-$274.4924949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abc…636abacked Yes57c513.6$292 inWon+$221.61844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No44c504.45$222 inLost-$221.8433049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes54c430$233 inWon+$196.756050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x804f…13abbacked Yes56c357.14$200 inWon+$157.144942.9%21 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No44c339.8$150 inLost-$149.512157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed No47c247.19$115 inLost-$114.9929243.8%128 W · 164 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd190…e445backed Yes56c202.77$114 inWon+$89.223756.8%21 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd130…5863backed Yes55c139.74$77 inWon+$63.081030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9dee…1415backed Yes55c120.6$66 inWon+$54.271080%8 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+41.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No44c116.99$52 inLost-$51.6185449.4%422 W · 432 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked No45c102.7$46 inLost-$4613759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No39c100$39 inLost-$3990863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d38…6f08backed Yes51c100$51 inWon+$4911852.5%62 W · 56 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed No43c96.45$42 inLost-$41.8696956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86aa…0d32backed Yes57c88.18$50 inWon+$38.181968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c74.1$32 inLost-$31.862,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…374bbacked Yes60c68.07$41 inWon+$27.431656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+18.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc067…e97cbacked Yes57c65$37 inWon+$27.652638.5%10 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e40…1945backed Yes55c53.41$29 inWon+$24.032568%17 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No43c41.86$18 inLost-$1814953%79 W · 70 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc770…8dbbbacked Yes56c40$22 inWon+$17.66150.8%31 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd69e…3393backed Yes56c35.78$20 inWon+$15.785048%24 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6659…792bbacked Yes61c35.46$22 inWon+$13.832445.8%11 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x07d9…c160backed Yes59c33.89$20 inWon+$13.894553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xee7e…2ba1backed Yes58c32.29$19 inWon+$13.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9785…2c5abacked Yes49c30$15 inWon+$15.34949%24 W · 25 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes60c30$18 inWon+$1215054.7%82 W · 68 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…acfabacked Yes56c26.79$15 inWon+$11.791080%8 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+49.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd31a…e653backed Yes59c25$15 inWon+$10.256347.6%30 W · 33 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474f…8ec6backed Yes55c20$11 inWon+$94463.6%28 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb53…2860backed Yes56c20$11 inWon+$8.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59d0…eebfbacked Yes59c18.64$11 inWon+$7.641643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.