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NBA · resolved market

Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,082 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xea3d…524dbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inLost-$1,0001163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Yes49c2,000$980 inLost-$98084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed No50c1,730$865 inWon+$864.921,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked No51c1,374$701 inWon+$673.2695651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bfa…621ebacked Yes51c985.37$500 inLost-$500560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No48c599.97$288 inWon+$311.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No51c543.85$278 inWon+$265.381,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9caf…e8bdbacked No50c493.38$246 inWon+$247.0833049.1%162 W · 168 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked No51c399.99$204 inWon+$19624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No50c220$110 inWon+$11056050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed No49c140$69 inWon+$70.7919959.3%118 W · 81 L+22.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed No51c110$56 inWon+$53.943052.3%225 W · 205 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes50c100$50 inLost-$502536%9 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3aab…7259backed Yes52c98.39$51 inLost-$511631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x85ee…79a9backed No51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.823351.5%17 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Yes51c58.27$30 inLost-$307953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x258b…270ebacked Yes48c52.08$25 inLost-$2517748%85 W · 92 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x787a…d3abbacked Yes50c50$25 inLost-$2540%0 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x276b…add4backed Yes50c40$20 inLost-$2012451.6%64 W · 60 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6be…fcfebacked No48c33.08$16 inWon+$17.210244.1%45 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70df…bca8backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$1532750.2%164 W · 163 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed No49c30$15 inWon+$15.333556.7%190 W · 145 L+26.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5eb6…9e4dbacked Yes50c30$15 inLost-$156259.7%37 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe35…6789backed Yes50c30$15 inLost-$1515054.7%82 W · 68 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfeb7…2f0fbacked No55c23.24$13 inWon+$10.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x565c…f3c0backed Yes50c20$10 inLost-$1010855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeaa2…5e7cbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost-$102035%7 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-22.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes50c20$10 inLost-$1022756.8%129 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.