TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,128
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,177

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,128 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x556c…93cebacked No47c444$209 inWon+$235.3224949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes53c333.79$177 inLost-$176.9118445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No48c229.97$110 inWon+$119.5956050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No40c209.98$84 inWon+$125.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0fd…a91ebacked Yes52c192.31$100 inLost-$1009353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb0e…90a1backed Yes54c180$97 inLost-$96.92272.7%16 W · 6 L+4.7wins+0.21per pick51cpaid+44%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0b90…672ebacked No50c150.6$75 inWon+$75.613759.9%82 W · 55 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5aeb…42d4backed Yes15c123.48$18 inLost-$1827539.6%109 W · 166 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2045…c77cbacked Yes60c100$60 inLost-$6012850.8%65 W · 63 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4bb…a993backed Yes60c100$60 inLost-$604067.5%27 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes53c98.59$52 inLost-$5230055.7%167 W · 133 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…68a0backed Yes50c80$40 inLost-$4015351%78 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5cd…4249backed Yes23c77.04$18 inLost-$17.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-63.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No52c71.29$37 inWon+$34.2453842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed No67c63.78$43 inWon+$21.0842842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No43c63.28$27 inWon+$36.0743752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3893…8afbbacked No54c61.11$33 inWon+$28.115664.3%36 W · 20 L+9.5wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+63.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Yes61c58$35 inLost-$35.382536%9 W · 16 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55af…8407backed Yes61c57.38$35 inLost-$355042%21 W · 29 L-3.8wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Yes57c51$29 inLost-$29.077237.5%27 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-20.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3875…cdfebacked Yes52c38.46$20 inLost-$201353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7322…bccebacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost-$207360.3%44 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-11.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed No48c30.98$15 inWon+$16.2533356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed No77c25$19 inWon+$5.759654.2%52 W · 44 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick61cpaid-15.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.