NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5094271a1e530c924e205d416c11652f83b8bd7e60608d2b12dfbdb8e5823e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spursof Thunder, Spurs
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,847
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2942…59abbacked Thunder | 19c | 20,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +15.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Thunder | 19c | 20,000$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,799.99 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28d7…89edbacked Thunder | 20c | 10,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,950.08 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Thunder | 20c | 6,868$1,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373.6 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Thunder | 19c | 6,311$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,199.1 | 127 | 41.7%53 W · 74 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 13c | 3,187$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Spurs | 80c | 1,400$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Thunder | 13c | 1,100$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dcf…dc6ebacked Thunder | 20c | 990$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde3d…6b1fbacked Thunder | 19c | 851.43$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.07 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Thunder | 15c | 833.62$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 538 | 42%226 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x293b…7a58backed Thunder | 9c | 653.11$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Thunder | 8c | 607.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472e…812bbacked Thunder | 15c | 566.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0539…70f9backed Thunder | 19c | 473.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Thunder | 8c | 329$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf92f…1a35backed Thunder | 20c | 295$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Thunder | 19c | 247.25$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Thunder | 20c | 236.56$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf91e…7e0bbacked Thunder | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 479 | 49.7%238 W · 241 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Thunder | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 412 | 27.4%113 W · 299 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65af…df77backed Thunder | 17c | 171.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…7bfebacked Thunder | 8c | 163$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +92%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc789…7972backed Thunder | 19c | 158.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Thunder | 19c | 140.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…50f6backed Thunder | 19c | 131.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab6b…f517backed Thunder | 15c | 124.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Thunder | 10c | 113.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1,341 | 29.9%401 W · 940 L | -53.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Thunder | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Thunder | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Thunder | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Spurs | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Spurs | 80c | 93.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 160 | 48.8%78 W · 82 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Spurs | 80c | 89.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 199 | 59.3%118 W · 81 L | +22.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Thunder | 20c | 88.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304d…31e9backed Thunder | 19c | 77.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Spurs | 80c | 67.25$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 320 | 45.3%145 W · 175 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…0ea7backed Thunder | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed Spurs | 80c | 62.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.43 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…8581backed Thunder | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e88…697dbacked Thunder | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 40 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Spurs (-1.5)Spurs won
- Chet Holmgren: Assists O/U 1.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5No won
- De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Devin Vassell: Rebounds O/U 1.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 2.5Yes won
- Jalen Williams: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Jalen Williams: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 8.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 30.5No won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Spread: Spurs (-11.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-2.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-3.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Spurs (-8.5)Spurs won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Spurs won
- Stephon Castle: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Stephon Castle: Points O/U 17.5No won
- Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Thunder vs. SpursSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 225.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Odd/Even ScoreOdd won
- Thunder vs. Spurs: Team to Score FirstSpurs won
- Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5Yes won
- Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 12.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.