TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06d0…059a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
213
Categories scored
27
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: AI, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category AI at 58 out of 100; worst Tennis at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST3262.5%20 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Stefon Diggs: Anytime Touchdownbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$16.09
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be green/yellow?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+52.1%+$62.47
Seahawks vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$50
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+25%+$24.85
Big Game: Coin Tossbacked Tails · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Texans vs. Steelersbacked Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+69.5%+$41
Commanders vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$40.9
Broncos vs. Eaglesbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.32
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$330.98
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+244.8%+$71
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+108.3%+$104
National Anthem O/U 120.5 secondsbacked Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+81.8%+$45
Will Saquon Barkley score a TD in Super Bowl LIX?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$64
Will the opening kickoff in Super Bowl LIX result in a touchback?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+42.9%+$180.53
Coin Toss: Heads or Tails?backed Tails · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST+100%+$50
Who will win the Coin Toss: Chiefs or Eagles?backed Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$11.5
Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$18.74
Seahawks vs. Ramsbacked Seahawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+29.9%+$23
Bengals vs. Steelersbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2025, EST+42.9%+$150
Browns vs. Broncosbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$17.15
Commanders vs. Giantsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2024, EST+51.5%+$120.46
Giants vs. Steelersbacked Steelers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2024, EDT+40.8%+$32.04
Vikings vs. Ramsbacked Vikings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$58.83
Bills vs. Jetsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2024, EDT+31.6%+$80.31
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2669.2%18 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+17.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5)backed Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$36
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the Western Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$402Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+46%+$185.08
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$43
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Ducks vs. Oilers backed Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+43.5%+$33.14
Canucks vs. Kingsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.99
Golden Knights vs. Canucksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Canucks vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EST+43.9%+$30.5
Canucks vs. Blackhawksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+132.6%+$57
Stars vs. Canucksbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+58.7%+$37
Canucks vs. Krakenbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Sharks vs. Canucksbacked Sharks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$47
Penguins vs. Canucksbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+63.9%+$39
Devils vs. Canucksbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+69.5%+$82
Capitals vs. Canucksbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$54.33
Islanders vs. Canucksbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+78.6%+$44
Canucks vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Canucks vs. Maple Leafsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Canucks vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$42
Panthers vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$53
Stars vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$63.93
Oilers vs. Starsbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$46
Blues vs. Jetsbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$134
Flames vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.47
Sharks vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT2568%17 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$50
Spread: Spurs (-15.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$59
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$182
Spread: Spurs (-6.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.99
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+25%+$20
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$48
Spread: Knicks (-14.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$36
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$28
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets backed Wolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Miami Heat?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$49.6
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be traded to the Golden State Warriors?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Lakers vs. Kingsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$19
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT+108.3%+$52
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$155.91
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$117Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$38.98
Knicks vs. Pacersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2025, EDT+122.2%+$55
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
Timberwolves vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$30.42
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+100%+$50
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+28.2%+$22
Cavaliers vs. Pacersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+38.9%+$38.89
All 25 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 14, 2026, EDT1855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick65cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Earnings — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$4.2
Will Rocket Lab (RKLB) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$23.53
Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$26.83
Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$17
Will Pinterest (PINS) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will AT&T (T) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Lyft (LYFT) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will Dupont De Nemours (DD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Will CVS Health (CVS) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25%+$9.28
Will Harley-Davidson (HOG) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+163.2%+$30.99
Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+28.2%+$11
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$295.49
Will Chewy (CHWY) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will TKO Group Holdings (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$90
Will McDonald’s (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$160
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.01
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-27.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$78
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobollibacked Flavio Cobolli · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$34
Mensik vs. Fonseca: Match O/U 36.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$62
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$77
Roland Garros ATP: Nuno Borges vs Andrey Rublevbacked Andrey Rublev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$27
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Stefanos Tsitsipasbacked Stefanos Tsitsipas · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Miami Open: Darwin Blanch vs Jan-Lennard Struffbacked Jan-Lennard Struff · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Set Handicap: Sinner (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5)backed Sinner · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+37%+$60.48
Australian Open Men's: Denis Shapovalov vs Marin Cilicbacked Shapovalov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$57
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$107.85
Wimbledon Final – Alcaraz vs. Sinner backed Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Iga Swiatek win Wimbledon 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$546Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2025, EDT+58.3%+$318.08
French Open: Svitolina vs. Swiatekbacked Swiatek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$25
French Open: Sabalenka vs. Qinwenbacked Sabalenka · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$28
All 14 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick64cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$710Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$709.83
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+56.3%+$36
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+26.6%+$146.07
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+26.6%+$42
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$699Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+100%+$698.51
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$40
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$421.44
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$22
Bitcoin all time high in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$115.99
Bitcoin all time high by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+56%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
UFC — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$30
UFC 329: Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoît Saint Denis (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Paddy Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$56
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Justin Gaethje · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$375Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$125
Fight to Go the Distance?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$36
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Sean Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Pimblett · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$157.49
UFC 324: Yadong vs. O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card)backed Yadong · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopesbacked Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$41
Yair Rodriguez vs. Patricio Pitbullbacked Rodriguez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2025, EDT+75.4%+$43
Weili vs. Suarezbacked Suarez · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2025, EST-100%-$57
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Warsh say "Depression" or "Recession" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$2.97
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$85.6
Will two people dissent the December Fed decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$24
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$138.61
Will Powell say "China" during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+56.2%+$36
Will Powell say "Inflation" 60+ times during June Press Conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$31
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST+33.3%+$25
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,800Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT+123.2%+$2,217.78
All 9 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Nov 2, 2025, EST966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick49cpaid+93.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+58.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT6100%6 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+62.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-46.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 9, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Storm vs Acesbacked Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$36
Dream vs Skybacked Dream · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$109.99
Liberty vs Mysticsbacked Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2025, EDT+37.9%+$55
Mystics vs Feverbacked Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2025, EDT-100%-$36
All 4 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$56
Florida vs. Houstonbacked Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$570Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$526.36
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX Starship 7th launch by Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2025, EST-100%-$59
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,284Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$1,283.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 3, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Diddy be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 3, 2025, EDT+51.8%+$34.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami vs. Indianabacked Indiana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$524Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+35.1%+$184.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$54.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
2025 January hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST-100%-$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$236
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of February 23 above $137?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$103.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.