Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ad17a6efe6c1286ec37e8502b2e644fa02f9495305f683d1a2155ab531c2484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $236,055
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,055 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 12,407$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…14e9backed Yes | 0c | 7,276$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked Yes | 7c | 5,346$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06d0…059abacked Yes | 4c | 4,645$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 2c | 3,145$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.04 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed Yes | 8c | 2,696$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 2c | 2,506$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Yes | 4c | 2,224$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.1 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 5c | 2,140$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 1c | 1,976$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…ae3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,489$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 6c | 1,202$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…4fa3backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 2c | 999.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed Yes | 4c | 930.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…0c16backed Yes | 5c | 571.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 5c | 523.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca9d…07f7backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…a411backed Yes | 3c | 471.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 7c | 403.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc436…15cfbacked Yes | 5c | 373.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 12c | 265$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.