Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20fc792e2efdac3025f97b93231a28d4beb93b08ea791fb2f7f8cebf99cae4ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,132
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 0c | 10,524$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 37c | 3,786$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,416.98 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 71c | 2,731$1,945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.2 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 12c | 2,560$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.64 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 4c | 2,200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e82…6bacbacked Yes | 19c | 2,170$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 8c | 2,166$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 28c | 1,982$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.49 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,728$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.3 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 71c | 1,501$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.57 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…a20dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,405$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x383c…3c70backed Yes | 2c | 1,142$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 50c | 905$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.5 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 68c | 883.99$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.43 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked No | 63c | 858.53$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 53c | 830.71$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…8839backed No | 78c | 798.09$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 45c | 744.31$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.54 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 728.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 25c | 728.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.38 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed No | 57c | 599.1$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.26 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 523.36$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.39 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 487.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 456.98$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.77 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 5c | 450$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 13c | 428.88$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.39 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…c344backed Yes | 60c | 350.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 13c | 326.18$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…e44bbacked No | 63c | 317.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 38c | 315$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…61b3backed Yes | 35c | 280.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 37c | 262.53$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 21c | 244.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 36c | 224$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.64 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 21c | 220.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3676…fd35backed No | 60c | 194$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…aedabacked No | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 26c | 121.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…cde2backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 48c | 103.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f5b…6759backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 36c | 79.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6056…7227backed No | 78c | 56.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…9f42backed Yes | 47c | 27.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.