Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4117da4ddd04127786bd2ab600f572798e42484cabfb1448ba3e0ec1305d3eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,516
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,516 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 45c | 2,835$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,557.26 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed No | 58c | 2,589$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.94 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 39cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,403$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.85 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 40c | 1,079$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,038$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.86 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 47c | 928.8$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.28 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 880.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 869.88$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.22 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 33c | 759$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.28 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 3c | 709.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 57c | 677.52$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.19 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 44c | 610$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.84 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 44c | 523.36$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.56 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 45c | 518.95$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.17 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked Yes | 48c | 515.72$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.31 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 41c | 454.24$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.61 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…be84backed Yes | 44c | 405.27$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.38 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 80c | 306$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 57c | 264.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.46 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…c344backed Yes | 37c | 189.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 27c | 117.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 30c | 100.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.67 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.84 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 62c | 99.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…4ec1backed Yes | 47c | 99.15$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 14c | 87.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6c…0bc2backed Yes | 38c | 70$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 31c | 55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…a411backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…0f37backed Yes | 67c | 51.94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…60aebacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6535…5b98backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6808…e2b3backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.