Movies · resolved market
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x606b3a3b8fdb83e552e9506d29153fb415b41dc747bb8ab23f50572c30a67a6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $130,809
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $100,100
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $130,809 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00fa…30bebacked Yes | 1c | 30,503$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -85%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 2c | 24,324$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.91 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 71c | 6,873$4,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.3 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 15c | 5,683$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.17 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6e…96ffbacked Yes | 10c | 4,347$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.06 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d7…3d6bbacked Yes | 10c | 3,424$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 33c | 3,093$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.74 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…e314backed Yes | 39c | 2,542$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x377f…9e02backed Yes | 4c | 1,962$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.13 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93d…b5ecbacked Yes | 5c | 1,794$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 1,419$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.1 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 8c | 1,400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 2c | 1,329$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 2c | 973$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d34…7c14backed Yes | 3c | 965.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…f7c0backed Yes | 28c | 872$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +148%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 13c | 800$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…6087backed Yes | 16c | 636.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 2c | 536.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 14c | 523.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 14c | 417.88$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.79 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Yes | 9c | 388$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…0c16backed Yes | 6c | 335.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 5c | 302.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…5733backed Yes | 5c | 298.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bba…d81fbacked Yes | 37c | 268.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed2e…dcfbbacked Yes | 10c | 220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +74%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf422…6743backed Yes | 11c | 184.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 12c | 177.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdff1…6c6bbacked Yes | 26c | 167.33$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 13c | 163.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe6b…f255backed Yes | 17c | 95.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 14c | 95.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 28c | 70.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85f4…a411backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72b1…a403backed Yes | 24c | 62.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…0f37backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $31m and $38m opening weekend?Yes won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross less than $24m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.