TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6139…6b7a

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
543
Categories scored
28
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Tweets, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 59 out of 100; worst IPO at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT21531.2%67 W · 148 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 215 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel military action against Syria by September 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Israel military action against Syria by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$836Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$835.74
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15,417Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+85.6%+$13,194.05
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$645Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$645
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$95.59
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+300%+$562.49
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.65
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$106.19
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT+47.8%+$258.98
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$1,503Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+139.3%+$2,094.1
Kurds declare independence from Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$9,673Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$3,645.44
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$139.15
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$2,368Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,367.69
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11,915Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11,915.42
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.47
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$13,276Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,275.85
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$3,007Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+66.3%+$1,992.47
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.32
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.68
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$166Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$165.91
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$561Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$560.62
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$175Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.61
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.76
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$228Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.33
Showing 25 of 215 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT5648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brian Mundubile win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,253Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,253.41
Will Fred M'membe win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.82
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+316.1%+$366.14
Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$3,255Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+63.2%+$2,057.5
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,389Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,024.37
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,949Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+48.9%+$1,929.1
Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$150.26
Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.8
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$2,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,030
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$952Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$952
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,565Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$934.98
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,575Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$925
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$1,210Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+65.3%+$789.99
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,109Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,108.64
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$5,639Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$3,763.66
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$808Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$1,116.25
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$305Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$195
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$2,432Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+104.6%+$2,543.19
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$531Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$531.08
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$8,773Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$8,773.15
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Peter Mandelson charged by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$628Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$161.15
Will Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$273.15
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT5641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jay-Z be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+25%+$10.34
Will Harvey Weinstein be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$5.24
Will Ghislaine Maxwell Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$8.87
Will Lord Peter Mandelson Testify to Congress about Epstein?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$145Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$144.95
Will Bill Clinton be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$24,325Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42%+$10,219.81
Will Steve Bannon be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.33
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,690Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,690
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$968Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$968.06
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$4,501Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$4,500.64
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$4.57
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.95
Will Trump deport 250,000-500,000 people?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$660Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$659.82
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$5,520Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+78.5%+$4,332.06
Will Elon cut the budget by at least 5% in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$141.54
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,295Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+31.1%+$402.69
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+26.3%+$25.09
Will Trump be impeached in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.3
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,050Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,049.99
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$2,399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,399.46
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.43
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 between December and June? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$97.5
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$5,183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$5,182.72
Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,599Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,598.97
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$132
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$4,007Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,007.13
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST3330.3%10 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 33 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 'Zootopia 2' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$401Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$401.24
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
Will 'Wolf Man' opening weekend gross less than $16m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$249Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+149%+$371.02
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+194.1%+$158.68
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross less than $52m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$849Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+46.2%+$392.57
Will 'Mufasa: The Lion King' gross between $58-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$31.94
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$2,087Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$2,086.67
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,482Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$2,482
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$740Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$740.01
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 60-69?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$34.24
Will "Mufasa: The Lion King" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 70-79?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$42.8
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$486Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+135.2%+$657.67
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $53-61m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT-100%-$183.14
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross more than $70m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+30.5%+$229.98
Will 'Smile 2' gross $24-27m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$330Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$329.95
Will 'Smile 2' gross $21-24m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$209Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT+272.1%+$569.36
Will the HBO documentary identify Nick Szabo as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$301.37
Will the HBO documentary identify Wei Dai as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$70.92
Will the HBO documentary identify David Kleiman as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$259.59
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross more than $38m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$1,417Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,416.98
Will 'The Wild Robot' gross between $24m and $31m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$4,890Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+40.5%+$1,982.3
Will 'Transformers One' gross less than $35m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2024, EDT+156.4%+$423.52
'Speak No Evil' grosses >$13m opening weekend?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 16, 2024, EDT+142.8%+$133.99
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $95m and $105m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$3,305Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$3,305.47
Will 'Beetlejuice Beetlejuice' gross between $85m and $95m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$121.95
Showing 25 of 33 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2934.5%10 W · 19 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$7,190Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,190.06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$9,253Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,253.09
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$7,375Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,374.99
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$346Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$346.47
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$1,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,903.85
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.83
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$330Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$170
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$396Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$146.37
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$3,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,500
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$563Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$563.22
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$290Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$290.48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23,826Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$23,825.68
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$96.5
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.75
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$62.37
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$150
Will Israel or the US target Fordow nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$410Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$589.99
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,035Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$464.99
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$1,500
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$756Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$756.45
Will Iran strike Al Zour Refinery by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$87.5
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$1,385Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,384.74
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$13,493Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$13,492.96
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$3,863Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,863.11
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT2623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$7,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,054.98
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$379Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.88
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.02
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.74
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$436Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$163.8
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.25
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 40% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$250.03
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds under 10% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$208.35
2026 U.S. House Election: Republican Odds over 60% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$253Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$253.36
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 50% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$233Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+875.9%+$2,039.98
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 55% by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$1,009Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+242.4%+$2,445.99
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$807Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+86%+$693.5
Will Lara Trump be appointed as the next Florida senator?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$88.76
Will John Thune be the next Senate Majority Leader?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+132.6%+$370.5
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 0-1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$284Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$283.93
Will Gallego win Arizona Senate election by 2-3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$4,774Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$4,774.27
Will Republicans have 53 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$650Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST+1,053.8%+$6,850
Will Republicans have 54 seats in Senate after election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2024, EST-100%-$384.39
Will a Republican win Arizona US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$2,170
Will a Democrat win Arizona US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$2,193Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2024, EST-100%-$2,192.71
Will a Republican win Nevada US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$692Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$692.26
Will a Democrat win Nevada US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2024, EST-100%-$125.86
Will a Democrat win Maryland US Senate Election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$163Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$162.5
Will a Republican win Maryland US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$330.5
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,337Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$2,336.59
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2025, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick46cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,135Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$486.61
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times June 27–July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$751Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$263.99
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$9,626Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+239.9%+$23,094.19
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times Jan 3-Jan 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$7,761Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+136.4%+$10,585.3
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 27-Jan 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$316Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST+50.2%+$158.51
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Dec 6-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$4,908Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+33.4%+$1,640.39
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 6-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$6,151Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST+29.5%+$1,814.76
Will Trump tweet less than 5 times Nov 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$587Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2024, EST+104.1%+$611.07
Will Trump tweet 25-29 times October 18-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$66.1
Will Elon tweet 200-224 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2024, EDT-100%-$28
Will Elon tweet 150-199 times?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 12, 2024, EDT+86.7%+$676.97
Will Trump post 11-15 times this week?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$294
Will Trump post 16-20 times this week?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2024, EDT-100%-$132.49
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+53.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,996Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,996.32
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$3,696Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$3,695.88
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,283Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+338.5%+$4,343.97
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33,097Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+139%+$46,021.24
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$185,471Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+40.3%+$74,810.9
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,064Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+449.8%+$4,786.87
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,887Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2025, EDT+196.1%+$3,699.53
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$2,025Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$2,025.02
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+42.9%+$150
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$1,935Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,935.3
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,755Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,755
Will Zelensky meet with Trump in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2024, EDT+92.3%+$240
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$701Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$700.83
All 13 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+117.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Olympics — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$681Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$681.15
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$309Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+148%+$456.89
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$1,222Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,221.51
China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,055Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,055.44
Will France win the 3rd most gold medals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT-100%-$76.34
Will Australia win the 3rd most gold medals?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+1,308.5%+$380.23
Olympic Men’s Basketball: Germany vs. Serbiabacked Serbia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$3,102Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 10, 2024, EDT+76%+$2,358.49
Will Karsten Warholm (NOR) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,063Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,062.7
Olympic Basketball: USA vs. Serbiabacked Serbia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$2,572Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$2,572.06
Will Letsile Tebogo (BOT) win Gold in 200m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+488.2%+$415
Olympic Basketball: Germany vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$745Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT+168.7%+$1,257.46
Olympic Basketball: USA (-27.5) vs. Brazil Spreadbacked Brazil · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,750Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$1,750
Olympic Basketball: Canada vs. Francebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11,486Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT+37.4%+$4,293
All 13 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,503Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+33.1%+$497
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Feb 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$20.27
Judy Shelton Fed Chair Nomination Odds >5% by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$124.96
Fed cuts 25 bps in March Odds >15% by February 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$239.9
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$4,028Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+187.8%+$7,565.98
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$720Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$720
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$575Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$575
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$1,300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,300
Will Powell say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during January press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$938Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$937.5
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$620Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+61.3%+$379.99
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$94.88
Will Fed cut interest rates 5 times in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST-100%-$145.65
No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$712Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 18, 2024, EDT-100%-$712.5
All 13 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,114Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$336
Will there be at least 1400 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$99.12
Will there be at least 1,200 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,706Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+29.8%+$1,105.69
Will there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,089Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$1,089.26
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$188Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$187.67
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$300.79
Will there be 2-4 inches of snow in NYC in Jan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$716Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST+154.5%+$1,106.58
Global heat increase between 1.25°C and 1.27°C for 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$55.27
Global heat increase between 1.28°C and 1.30°C for 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+300%+$888.81
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be between 1.25-1.29°C?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$305.63
2024 July hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$754Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+153.8%+$1,159.67
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Apple run an Ad during Super Bowl LIX?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$5,226Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2025, EST+103.5%+$5,411.9
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Family Ties"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$112.49
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "King Kunta"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$164.18
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Swimming Pools"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$123.76
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Bitch Don't Kill My Vibe"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$123.74
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Collard Greens"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST+42.9%+$9.35
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Alright"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$150
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Squabble Up"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$127.81
Will Kendrick Lamar perform "Not Like Us"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$73.2
Jaguars vs. Brownsbacked Browns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT+143.9%+$295
Packers vs. Coltsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT+138.1%+$245.98
All 11 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $16 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$95.55
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $15 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$2,358Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+455.6%+$10,743.47
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $12 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$670Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$670
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $10 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$1,140Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$1,140.12
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $8 million?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$413.54
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$637Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$637.43
Will Jake Paul fight Speed next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$55.03
Will Imane Khelif (ALG) win Gold in Women’s 66kg Boxing at the 2024 Summer Olympics?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT-100%-$18.69
92kg M Boxing Final: Dominguez (AZE) vs. Mullojonov (UZB)backed Mullojonov · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$260Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+96.1%+$249.9
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick24cpaid-19.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-59.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+883.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2025, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Chess — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+245.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+206.1%+$505
SpaceX Starship launch by Nov 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST+284.6%+$42
All 2 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2024, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$70,186Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT+55.9%+$39,199.12
Mitch vs. Rektober: September PnLbacked Mitch · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$3,710Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2024, EDT+69.8%+$2,588.72
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 4, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegulabacked Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,985Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 4, 2024, EDT+76.3%+$1,515
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$37.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Aug 30, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
CFB: NDSU vs. Coloradobacked NDSU · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 30, 2024, EDT-100%-$240
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Sep 15, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvilibacked O’Malley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 15, 2024, EDT-100%-$98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bryson complete the Hole in 1 Challenge by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$667Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2024, EST-100%-$667.13
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.