TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xa69f…6874

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
251
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST7338.4%28 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 73 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$201Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$200.54
Spread: Seahawks (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$306.57
Rams vs. Seahawksbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST-100%-$43
Spread: Patriots (-5.5)backed Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$96
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$26.42
Will the 49ers win the 2026 NFC Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$38.43
Texans vs. Steelers: O/U 42.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+53.8%+$24.5
Spread: Texans (-1.5)backed Texans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+78.6%+$79.2
49ers vs. Eaglesbacked 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+136.2%+$86.5
Bills vs. Jaguarsbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+150%+$48
Spread: Rams (-10.5)backed Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+122.2%+$16.5
Texans vs. Chiefsbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$57.86
Cowboys vs. Lions: 1H Moneylinebacked Lions · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+69.5%+$20.5
Giants vs. Patriotsbacked Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$15
Spread: Broncos (-6.5)backed Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+88.7%+$18.8
Bills vs. Steelersbacked Bills · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$183Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+35.1%+$64.2
Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)backed Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+201.9%+$53.5
Spread: Chiefs (-3.5)backed Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$26.79
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$26.46
Chiefs vs. Cowboys: O/U 52.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$27.54
Packers vs. Lionsbacked Packers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+138.1%+$26.31
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+58.7%+$32.56
Cardinals vs. Cowboys: O/U 53.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Cowboys vs. Bearsbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$88.4
Showing 25 of 73 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT4242.9%18 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.29
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+619.4%+$94.71
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$112
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+207.7%+$108
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$220.91
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.2
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.8
Lionel Messi: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Harry Kane: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.25
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.3
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$50.67
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$61.45
France vs. Morocco: France O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$15.96
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Team to Advancebacked Colombia · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.5
Switzerland vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.6
Argentina vs. Egypt: Argentina O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$11.72
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$90
Argentina vs. Egypt: Team to Advancebacked Egypt · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.8
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.18
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.57
Portugal vs. Spain: Spain O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.09
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goalsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Mexico vs. England: Mexico O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$20.16
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT4231%13 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick36cpaid+85.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 15m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$15.67
Will "Lee Cronin's The Mummy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 20m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$118
Will "Superman" Rotten Tomatoes score be between 80–89?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.4
Will 'The Monkey' gross more than 15m on its opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20.53
Will "Captain America" Opening Weekend Box Office be more than $91m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $35-40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$324Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST+84.5%+$273.49
Will "Dog Man" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $25-30m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2025, EST-100%-$80.77
Will "Flight Risk" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $10m and $13m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2025, EST+132.6%+$144.46
Will 'Nosferatu' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Will 'The Substance' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2025, EST+42.9%+$36
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST-100%-$204.61
Will 'Anora' win the Golden Globe for Best Screenplay?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2025, EST-100%-$29.6
Will another movie gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$58
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,494Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2025, EST-100%-$1,493.62
Another actor announced as next James Bond actor?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$103.6
Damson Idris announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$25.18
Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST+44.9%+$46.5
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$12.12
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $56-64m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+5,650.9%+$880.6
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST-100%-$27.16
Will 'Moana 2' gross more than $180m on 5-day opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$841Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+64.1%+$539.56
Will 'Moana 2' gross over $200m on 5-day opening?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$354Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+176.5%+$624.22
Will 'Venom: The Last Dance' gross between $45-53m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$243Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2024, EDT+54.1%+$131.5
Will 'Smile 2' gross less than $21m opening weekend?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2024, EDT-100%-$81.41
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1850%9 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.21
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.27
Spread: Spurs (-9.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.79
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+203%+$81.21
Spread: Knicks (-7.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$109Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$51.2
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$32
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$119.83
Spread: Thunder (-3.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$192.15
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.8
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$22.32
Spread: Magic (-2.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$28.48
NBA Finals G1: Will Haliburton score 18+ points against the Thunder? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$151.41
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$537Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+56.8%+$304.65
Clippers vs. Nuggetsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
Pistons vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Bucks vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$276Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$124
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2025 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$28.71
All 18 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick44cpaid-69.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$1,042Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,042.25
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50.92
Trove FDV above $40M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+49.3%+$48.05
Trove FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,417Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,416.93
Over $10M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$487.37
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$24.05
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$71.41
Lighter Airdrop on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$31.33
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$965Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT+28%+$269.96
Will Berachain launch a token in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$68.58
Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,030Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$1,030.08
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$91.53
Will Berachain launch a token in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,162Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+25.1%+$291.17
All 13 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.9
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$18.6
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Jan 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Israel invade Lebanon before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$267Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2024, EDT+110.4%+$294.33
Nasrallah remains Hezbollah leader through Oct 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 28, 2024, EDT+48.8%+$46.87
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$52.52
Nasrallah remains leader of Hezbollah through August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.5
Iran military response by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2024, EDT-100%-$134.06
Will Beirut airport close by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2024, EDT-100%-$10.59
Iran military response by Sunday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT-100%-$73.23
Will Netanyahu meet with Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2024, EDT+47.1%+$16
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2026, EST1040%4 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+60.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$101.2
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+33.3%+$50
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$27.17
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+809.1%+$89
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$48.06
Will Trump say "rig" or "rigged" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20.4
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Trump say "America first" during his inauguration speech?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+29.9%+$11.5
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+334.8%+$115.5
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, D Housebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$74Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST-100%-$74.25
All 10 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-51.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

WNBAlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
WNBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indiana Fever vs. Dallas Wingsbacked Indiana Fever · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.4
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-9.5)backed Minnesota Lynx · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$51
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercurybacked Phoenix Mercury · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Aces vs Mysticsbacked Mystics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT+63.9%+$31.2
Aces vs Libertybacked Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$96.25
All 5 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+287.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 26, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Nov 20, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+171.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Flamengo win on 2025-11-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+72.4%+$17.78
Will Fluminense FC win on 2025-11-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+270.4%+$68.96
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 7, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2024, EST-100%-$22.08
Will a Republican win Montana US Senate Election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$429Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2024, EST+51.5%+$221
All 2 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST+68.9%+$45.09
Will Mike Tyson knockout Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Sep 21, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a hurricane form by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$16
2024 July hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$973Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2024, EDT+26.6%+$258.77
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Sep 17, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$11.34
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$5,957Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$5,957.37
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2last resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+61.3%+$30.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Serbia win Gold in Men's Basketball?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2024, EDT-100%-$16.98
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win Gold in Women's Football (Soccer)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$22.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5)backed Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Nov 26, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dell say "Confidence" during earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$41.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FIFA Club World Cup: Inter Milan vs. Fluminense (To Advance)backed Inter Milan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.98
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.